Worst UNC defeat coming July 14

THE ONLY threat to the ruling  People’s National Movement (PNM) hold on political power is an Opposition alliance “comprising individuals of proven integrity and track record.” This was one of several findings in the final NACTA poll before Monday’s Local Government Election which sees the PNM remaining on course for a massive victory over the Opposition United National Congress (UNC). While the poll shows the PNM will sweep Monday’s election, it also warns that the ruling party could be defeated by an alliance of opposition parties whose members are “corruption free,” but the UNC in its present configuration does not fit such a profile. The poll, which interviewed 1,056 voters to yield a demographically representative sample of the population, also found widespread dissatisfaction with local government and central government representatives. Nearly two-thirds of the voters expressed dissatisfaction with their councillors  while nearly a third of the respondents identified their MP as their local government representative. However more voters gave PNM MPs the thumbs up over their UNC counterparts and felt several UNC MPs should resign and make way for new faces “who are not tainted, and who will be more dynamic.” Oppos-ition Leader Basdeo Panday was the top non-performing UNC MP with Chaguanas MP Manohar Ramsaran and Naparima MP Nizam Baksh coming second and third respectively in non-performance.

Overall, only 31 percent of voters in UNC-controlled constituencies are happy with the performance of their MPs compared to 39 percent voter satisfaction in PNM-controlled constituencies. Nation-wide, 51 percent of the respondents are unhappy with their MPs’ performance. Ortoire/Mayaro MP Franklyn Khan is regarded as the best performing parliamentarian followed by Toco/Manzanilla MP Roger Boynes and Tunapuna MP Eddie Hart. NACTA polls have also been showing a steady loss of support for the UNC and continuous gains for the PNM since July 2001 when the UNC “began to unravel” after Panday failed to accept the results of the party’s internal elections which saw former Attorney-General Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj elected as UNC deputy leader. Since Maharaj’s departure, the UNC’s leadership has been unable to arrest the slide in its support and on Monday “the party will suffer its worst defeat since it was formed over 13 years ago.” NACTA’s polls have determined that under Panday’s leadership the UNC “is unlikely to ever return to government, and that its support will continue to shrink.” Under St Augustine MP Winston Dookeran’s leadership, the UNC does slightly better, polling 44 percent by drawing support from the Indian middle and professional classes, and could retain five of the seven local government bodies it now holds. The polls also show the UNC registering smaller percentages, but still losing the election with either UNC MPs Roodal Moonilal, Kamla Persad-Bissessar and Kelvin Ramnath at the helm. However a Ganga Singh led-UNC would see a crash in UNC support of 26 percent and the loss of even the party’s safe seats in Penal/Debe, Princes Town, Chaguanas and Couva.

The poll hands the Siparia Regional Corporation to the PNM as Persad-Bissessar has lost her appeal among Indian female, and African male voters in her Siparia constituency. In terms of political accomodations, an opposition alliance minus Panday and other UNC MPs who are perceived to be corrupt will defeat the PNM, retaining six local bodies, wresting San Fernando from the PNM and tying another. Asked about choice for Prime Minister, neither Panday nor incumbent PM Patrick Manning receives a strong mandate, but Manning outpolls Panday in a race for Executive President. Manning gets the nod for PM from 29 percent of the respondents opposed to Panday’s 22 percent. Other contenders for PM were Dr Keith Rowley, Maharaj, Dookeran, Ken Valley, Persad-Bissessar, Moonilal, and Reginald Dumas. However narrowed down to Manning and Panday, Manning gets 51 percent of the vote compared to Panday’s 38 percent while 11 percent offered no opinion. Only 29 percent of respondents believed Chairman of the Piarco Commission of Inquiry, retired Chief Justice Clinton Bernard is not biased, with a whopping 53 percent believing he was and 71 percent felt the Inquiry should be terminated as it fulfilled its objective. Some 47 percent of respondents (mostly Indians) believe the National Lotteries Control Board is racially biased against Indians in its disbursement of funds. African respondents brush off any racial bias claims saying the situation was reversed when the UNC was in power. On the Caribbean Citizenship Bill, some 48 percent of respondents (including a significant number of PNM supporters) oppose allowing Caricom nationals coming to work in Trinidad and Tobago. Only 37 percent of respondents support the Bill. Asked if the UNC should support the establishment of the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) as the final court of appeal, the response was mixed with only 49 percent saying yes, the majority of these being Africans.