NACTA: Panday is PNM’s biggest asset

An exit poll and post election survey conducted by NACTA has revealed that Basdeo Panday has become the opposition’s biggest liability and stumbling block in a regrouping of the UNC; the poll also shows that Panday is the PNM’s biggest asset in winning elections and unless he exits the political scene quickly, the opposition will have virtually no chance at making a political comeback. The survey was conducted to determine why the electorate voted the way they did, or stayed away from the polls. NACTA interviewed 292 adults — 196 UNC supporters and 96 supporters of varying demographics to obtain their views on politics in the nation as well as to weigh in on why the UNC was humiliated at the polls, and conversely why the PNM was victorious in light of the government’s high disapproval ratings. Interviewed after they cast their ballots, UNC supporters were not enthusiastic about exercising their franchise. Also, in several constituencies, UNC mock poll workers were glum and despondent about the low turnout in the heartland and the large number of UNC activists who crossed over to the PNM.  UNC activists complained that supporters were in a grumpy mood and unwilling to support a tarnished party when they were approached in get-out-the-vote drives on election day. According to findings of the poll, if the PNM is interested in winning elections with ease, then the PNM should do everything in its power to keep Panday as leader of the UNC.  Panday has extremely high negative ratings among the population at large, including among traditional supporters of the UNC, and they are not prepared to put him back in office as Prime Minister. His negative rating is primarily responsible for a significant percentage of UNC supporters staying away from the voting booths, and/or voting for the PNM.

Asked if Panday is a liability to the UNC, 74 percent of UNC supporters answered in the affirmative with many qualifying their response that Panday has become an asset to the PNM. Respondents also indicated that several minions surrounding Panday are a liability to the party as well. Nearly a third of the PNM supporters  evaded the question and the others were almost evenly divided on the issue. Despite widespread dissatisfaction with the PNM over its handling of violent crime, dismal health care, high unemployment, corruption allegations, and other social and economic issues, more voters prefer the PNM over the UNC because they feel it can be trusted more. Ironically, nearly a third of UNC supporters said they trust the PNM more than the UNC on financial matters although they also link elements of the PNM with corruption. Respondents felt that the PNM scored a handsome victory because of the perception of corruption that hangs over the UNC, and the weakness and inability of the opposition to take advantage of the many mistakes of the PNM government. Asked to explain the party’s defeat,  UNC supporters said they were turned off by growing and persistent allegations of corruption leveled against Panday and close friends or allies of the UNC, and are disappointed that Panday has made no effort to address the bank account issue. But although they were critical of Panday because of the perception of corruption, a majority of respondents also said it was unfair for Panday to be singled out for violation of an ethics law which so many officials, including judges, have violated by not declaring their assets.  A majority of respondents feel the anti-corruption law should  be enforced across the board and other officials should also be hauled before the court.

In explaining the UNC’s defeat, a majority of respondents pointed out that Panday was a drag on many good candidates. UNC supporters felt some of the candidates would have been better off had Mr. Panday and his wife, Oma, not campaign in their constituencies. In Tarouba, for example, voters said they have great respect for Dr Mahabir but could not vote for him because of their dislike for Panday and Oma who they said neglected that area when the UNC was in office. Many UNC supporters complained that the party made no serious effort to reform itself or cleanse its image, and were turned off by party spokesmen and campaign speakers whose character is impugned or tainted. Many complained about Panday’s public behaviour, in particular, his loud outbursts against individuals of integrity and his attitude towards certain important bills such as anti-kidnapping and Caribbean Court of Justice; his contradictory stance on a number of important issues has strained the credibility of his supporters. Some of  the respondents said they voted UNC as a protest vote against the PNM although they were also dissatisfied with the leadership of the UNC. Asked to express their view on Panday’s political future, the  overwhelming majority praised Panday for his contributions to the politics of the nation but felt he cannot take the opposition any further and should therefore make way for new leadership. Winston Dookeran, Kelvin Ramnath, Suren Capildeo,  Roodal Moonilal, Kamla Bissessar, Anand Ramlogan, and Bhoe Tewarie’s names were  mentioned as possible successors. Many respondents also said there should be reconciliation between Panday and Ramesh Maharaj to rebuild the party, but PNM supporters are adamantly opposed to any Ramesh-Panday reconciliation; PNM supporters feel Manning should replace Chin Lee with Maharaj as Minister of National Security as they feel he is the only politician who can solve the crime problem.

Respondents also said the UNC should be purged of dead beats and only a few names were mentioned to be retained as candidates for Parliament. UNC supporters say unless there is rapid reform and cleansing of the UNC, there is no political future for the party, or any chance of an opposition alliance unseating the PNM. Respondents predict a snap poll in two years and expect the PNM to sweep the next general elections and pick up four seats to give it a veto-proof majority. PNM supporters and mock poll agents, for the most part, were enthusiastic on election day and attribute the party’s recent victory to good governance, effective campaign strategies and hard work. Some said they voted PNM because they are born PNM while others said they voted for PNM in protest against the UNC leadership, and or because of CEPEP and URP jobs. For the most part, voters remained true to their partisan leanings voting for “their party” as opposed to voting on issues that impact on their lives. Respondents noted that Panday has put up a tough fight in the election in light of the vast amount of resources arrayed against him. They praised Panday as a formidable politician, but UNC supporters  noted that the time has come for him to hang up his boots, or take his people down with him. If Panday stays on much longer, the long term effect on his supporters will be devastating — denying his party a chance to become part of a future government.