Life expectancy between men, women narrowing

One of the great truisms is that women live longer than men. We have been served this statistical reality from our very entry into the insurance industry and life insurance premiums duly reflect the higher life expectancy for women. However, all of that may well change although not any time soon! Most United Kingdom life insurance companies provide data to the Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau (CMIB) — an organisation sponsored by the UK actuarial profession that collects information on mortality and morbidity and recent results suggest trends that have implications for the life insurance industry and the broader society.

There are no mortality tables for Trinidad and Tobago or for that matter the Caribbean and life insurance rates in our market are generally based on Canadian mortality tables for the most part. Some 25 years ago there was some interest by the leading life insurance companies to develop a Caribbean mortality table but this never came to fruition on the grounds of insufficient data, the prohibitive costs involved in such an investigation and the scarcity of qualified persons in the region to undertake this work. Naturally, while there is no dispute over the findings there is no empirical data yet available that can confirm the causes for the deaths charted in the investigation. However, there is a grave suspicion and even speculation that the stressful nature of work coupled with lifestyle implications might be the underlying cause for the reduced life expectancy in females. What emerged from the study was that male mortality has been improving more quickly than female mortality. However, in any sampling it depends on the size and the length of time the data has been tracked before firm conclusions can be drawn.

The CMIB has been gathering data on female lives from the 1970’s when women in sufficient numbers have been buying life and pension policies. With respect to men, the CMIB has data that go back the better part of 75 years. It is worth pointing out that the female lives studied were considered more affluent that the average British female. Again it was generally accepted that an affluent life lived longer but an affluent female with a stressful work environment and with lifestyle changes may be no more likely to live longer than the average female. However, we are dealing with insured lives and the sample may be considered too small. In the UK, the Government Actuaries Department undertakes population-wide studies and therefore this is more representative of the country as a whole. These studies revealed that female life expectancy rose more quickly than male life expectancy during the 1960’s and 1970’s but fell back in the 1980’s and 1990’s. The closing of the gap is evident and from a previous four and a half years, it is now three years and this trend appears to be continuing. This could lead to an eventual convergence and then overturn the old principle that women live longer than men. That outcome could see boys born in this century having a longer life expectancy than girls! While one could never be absolutely certain about outcomes, the trend suggests that possibility and then one would have to determine underlying causes.

For instance, there is evidence suggesting that female mortality at age 40+ is not improving as quickly as male mortality and cigarette smoking is considered as one of the main reasons. It would appear that men are smoking less than female at the younger ages. It is suggested that the effects of stress on working women might have contributed to the lowering of the differential between male and female mortality. What is clear is that life expectancy between male and female is becoming more similar but there are no firm conclusions that can be drawn for the reasons why this should be so. It is possible that with gender equality and equal opportunities for women in the workplace life expectancy can also become closely aligned with very little differential between male and female. What you wish for you might well get. Women have been advocating for equal treatment whether it is prize money in sport or opportunities in the corporate world.

To a large extent, they are achieving their goals in gender equity. These recent studies on life expectancy at least for UK women are producing results that show the gap between men and women is narrowing and may lead to the new generation of women who buy insurance products paying premiums more in line with men sometime in the future. While this will not happen overnight, the trends will make actuaries take notice and they will no longer automatically assume that women are likely to live four years longer than men. This is the UK experience. We have no idea what our own experience is and whether we would have similar results if an investigation is undertaken. In the absence of this data, we can only adopt the experience of work conducted elsewhere and make appropriate adjustments and over time see whether the actual out turn matches the model and the assumptions used. This development must be followed to see where it actually leads and the insurance industry will naturally be keeping a watchful eye and there are implications not only for it but for society as a whole.

E-mail: daquing@cablenett.net