Something wrong with CSO figures — Central Bank Governor

Central Bank Governor Ewart Williams said he was “worried” over statistics coming out of the Central Statistical Office (CSO). He was speaking at a press briefing at Central Bank offices on Independence Square yesterday.

The latest data from CSO suggests that employment rate is  10.2 percent, after recording 11 percent in the first quarter, he said. “It seems to me that such volatility suggests that something is wrong with the figures,” he said. Williams took the view that the normal unemployment swing does not include CEPEP and Caroni. He said he was not sure how to interpret unemployment statistics. In  the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report for September 2003, it was noted that buoyant growth in the first half of the year was led by a surge in the energy sector, low inflation and  a strengthening of the external position.

In the first half of 2003, real GDP grew by 2.5 percent, driven mainly by higher production of LNG, oil and petrochemicals. The energy sector grew by 11.5 percent while real output in the non-energy sector grew at a much slower rate of .2 percent in the first six months of 2003. The domestic economy is expected to strengthen, with real GDP growing in the range of 4-5 percent. On the 2004 Budget, the report said that Government expects to post an overall budget deficit of $312 million, about .5 percent of GDP. However, if divestment proceeds of $300 million, which are classified in the fiscal accounts as part of Government revenues are omitted, the result would be a budget deficit of $612m or .9 percent of GDP.