Bio-terrorism rule could halt all trade with US

An international trade consultant has predicted that during the next 18 months, security concerns of the United States could determine the survival of the smaller economies of the Caribbean region. Prof Anthony Bryan, director of Caribbean Studies at the University of Miami, yesterday expressed his belief that global terrorism has changed the face of the relationship between developed countries, such as the US and Europe, and the Caribbean, centering it around security rather than developmental concerns.

Mandates such as the US Maritime Transportation and Security Act — to be implemented on July 1— and other bio-terrorism rules, now present some serious risks for countries smaller than the US, he said, explaining that the outcome will include an increase in the cost of transport and of doing business. The worst-case scenario, he determined, was that after July 1, trade with the US could come to a complete halt. Bryan was speaking during a panel discussion on the final day of the fourth Euromoney/Latin Finance Caribbean Investment Forum at the Hilton Hotel and Conference Centre.

He said, “I think the thing that is going to damage us the most is the border controls and security in the region, and the way in which they are coming under serious international oversight.” “Unless we are able to influence some changes in the way in which those mandates are imposed on us, we are going to be pushed to the margin of the global economy.” Stressing the need for caution, Bryan explained that Caribbean economies needed to understand that any adjustments made by developed countries, specifically the US, would affect the global business cycle. This in turn could significantly impact the Caribbean, whose only real advantage was that it was, at present, an export platform for the US.

Bryan went further to predict that the next 18 months could very well see the globalisation process in the Caribbean ending in failure, since Caribbean businesses were seeing a significant increase in adjustment costs. Additionally, he said, global trading blocs like the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and the WTO distorted the priorities of policy makers in the region, diverting financial and human resources from important sectors such as health, education and industry. “This is the sort of concern we have to have not only over the next 18 months, but in the foreseeable future,” he maintained.