TT not ready for ‘big one’

A HURRICANE above Category One strength could destroy Trinidad and Tobago. In fact, experts estimate that a hurricane of the magnitude of Ivan, which almost completely flattened neighbouring Grenada just over a year ago, could unleash similar destruction here. A Category Four or Five hurricane could wipe out about 75 to 90 percent of the country’s housing stock. With a Category One, they say, there will be damage, but it will be within the national capacity to cope. However, this country could be devastated by anything from Category Three upward. According to Dr Myron Chin, Pro Tem Director of TT’s newly established Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (ODPM), in addition to the natural vulnerability of being a small island state, this country is at high risk of extensive destruction because of several man-made problems which contribute to flash flooding, landslides and other perils.

According to Dr Chin, indiscriminate dumping of garbage in water courses, coupled with failure to de-silt rivers, unregulated developments — particularly on hillsides —  and lack of enforcement of building codes, make large portions of the country very prone to extensive destruction by a hurricane. The low-income houses built in a ramshackle, unregulated fashion on the hills of Laventille are not the only structures likely to tumble down, he warned. Several luxury homes, also perched on hills in prime real-estate areas and along Trinidad’s west coast, among them expensive high-rise apartments, condominiums and elaborate mansions could collapse if the gale-force winds, storm surges and persistent heavy rains of a hurricane ever bear down on TT.

Because this country is predominantly urban, the resulting pressure on the environment increases our vulnerability to a natural disaster, particularly among the poor. In the densely populated informal settlements that have sprouted up in areas like Morvant-Laventille, Beetham Estate and Sea Lots, the risk of almost complete hurricane devastation is high. While this country has not experienced the full force of a major hurricane for several decades, the possibility of such a disastrous event is increasing. “Because of global warming the experts tell us that hurricanes are coming further south,” Dr Chin said.

“The Caribbean is in the middle of a multi-decadal cycle and for the next 15 to 30 years we can expect more hurricanes like Ivan. We have to be prepared.” This dire warning is echoed in an updated Atlantic Hurricane and Seasonal Climate Summary released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on August 2. According to NOAA, there is a 95 to 100 percent chance of above normal activity for the remainder of this hurricane season. NOAA is predicting 11 to 14 more named storms by the time the hurricane season ends on November 30. Therefore there is a strong possibility that Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince and Wilma could be formed somewhere in this area over the next few months. “Even though there has already been considerable early season activity, most of the activity is still expected to occur during the climatological peak months of August-October. Many of the storms during this period will develop from disturbances moving westward from the west coast of Africa and will likely form over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea . . .

“Historically, tropical storms that first form in these areas account for 55 percent of all hurricanes and 80 percent of all major hurricanes.” NOAA further stated: “Tropical storms that form over the tropical Atlantic Ocean generally track westward toward the Caribbean islands and/or United States as they strengthen into hurricanes and therefore pose an increased threat to these regions.” Since 1995, with the exception of two El Nino years in 1997 and 2002, all of the Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal. This contrasts sharply with the previous 25-year period 1970-1994 when there was generally below-normal activity.

While for the most part this country has been spared the full onslaught of hurricanes, records show that between 1850 and 2000, two hurricanes and five tropical storms made landfall in TT. In June 1933, before storms and hurricanes were named, Tropical Cyclone Number Two passed over the extreme southwest tip of Trinidad with winds estimated at 120 kilometres an hour. It caused the death of 13 persons, 1000 were rendered homeless and there was significant property damage, particularly in South Trinidad. Damage totalled US$3 million. Three decades later, on September 30, 1963, Hurricane Flora slammed into TT with winds estimated at 195 kilometres an hour. In Tobago, approximately 2,750 houses were destroyed and the island’s agricultural sector suffered severe damage.

Hurricane Flora caused 18 deaths in Tobago and two in Trinidad. Losses were put at US$30 million in Tobago and US$60,000 in Trinidad. In 1974, Tropical Storm Alma made landfall in Trinidad on August 14 with estimated winds of 74 kilometres an hour. Wind gusts as high as 91 kilometres an hour were measured in Matura and 147 kilometre an hour in Savonetta. There was extensive damage along the strip from Plum Mitan to California and the storm was responsible for one death directly and another indirectly during its passage over Trinidad. During the 1990s, three tropical storms made landfall here — Arthur and Fran in 1990 and Bret in 1993. Then there was Joyce in 2000. These storms produced significant wind damage, with localised heavy rainfall, which led to flooding and landslides.

With TT at increased risk for a major hurricane, the ODPM, which replaces the National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) as this country’s lead disaster management agency, has been trying to increase national awareness through advertisements and training programmes. Dr Chin said it is important for families and communities to understand their responsibilities in the event of a natural disaster in this country. He explained: “Awareness must start at the family level and there must be ongoing education. We need to keep hammering the message home — people need to be prepared for a storm, or worse.”

According to Dr Chin, there are three levels of response established in this country for a natural disaster. The first level of response involves the police and fire services, as well as the country’s 15 regional corporations which are responsible for managing emergency shelters and coordinating relief efforts. ODPM steps into the picture when the situation gets beyond the scope of the regional corporations, at the second response level. The third response level is activated if the situation is too severe to be handled by the national agencies and outside help is required, Dr Chin pointed out.