Don’t expect power shifts after elections

The dynamics of governing TT have never been a straightforward scenario. The People’s National Movement (PNM), although victorious at the recent polls, has to keep its machinery oiled and fully functional to maintain its current position. It has everything under its control — central government, local government and the THA.

The PNM must however recognise that its position has changed significantly. In politics it is espoused by both academics and practitioners that governments change not necessarily because political parties actually win government but, in reality, political parties lose government.

It is because of the vast and wide-ranging social, economic and political issues which remain neglected that the population is dissatisfied. This weighs heavily against political parties in government and causes them to lose.

The PNM is now on the defensive as opposed to the offensive.

It is therefore up to the strategic competence of the PNM in government to hold onto power. The odds are not stacked in its favour, given its report on the state of the economy after a year in office.

What it does over the next couple months will determine how much of its overarching power will remain after the upcoming elections.

The United National Congress (UNC)-led People’s Partnership is at this point a relatively weak opposition. The UNC seems to still be recovering from its recent defeat coupled with an internal election which revealed that all is not well among its senior officials.

Kamla Persad-Bissessar, as leader of the UNC, has not won an election since 2010 and has consequently been losing popularity.

The Congress of the People has become politically irrelevant and this has contributed to weakening the overall attractiveness of the Partnership.

All of this being considered, the opportunities for local government, THA and possible by-elections can result in a new government at every level.

The current reality is that the country may not experience any shifts in power over the next six months with these upcoming elections and this will further validate the PNM as the better political option on the current landscape.

Ronald Huggins St Joseph