The house next door

The TT Government must draft a contingency plan to deal with any possible worst-case scenarios emerging in Venezuela, such as a flood of economic refugees, and any spillover of criminality from that country’s societal breakdown.

While we as individuals and as a society must maintain an open heart to those Venezuelan citizens visiting on legitimate business such as shopping for foodstuffs, the authorities must have a heightened vigilance to those of criminal intent, such as several Venezuelans recently held in a boat laden with illegal drugs.

Areas to which TT is particularly vulnerable from a fragmenting State next door include the trafficking of illicit guns, illicit drugs and vulnerable people. Such activities are surely underlined by a new desperation now in Venezuela that requires the TT authorities to exercise even greater vigilance, even as we face our own economic challenges such as spates of retrenchment in the public and private sectors. Our other concern is for TT’s energy sector to not be caught unawares by putting all our eggs into one Venezuelan basket.

If Venezuela is imploding, in what resulting environment will Venezuelan and TT negotiators be sitting down to work out all the intricate details of a gas supply from Venezuela’s Dragon Field and the long-awaited cross-border Loran Manatee Field to revive our gas-starved petrochemical industries in Point Lisas? Alternatively, would a regime-collapse threaten such deals? Further, while in theory any government under economic stress would be keen to earn revenues from the sale of its hydrocarbon commodities, is Venezuela actually able to deliver? We mull not only its backdrop of street-level socio-economic breakdown, but also query the Venezuela Government’s administrative capacity in all of this, and its ability to engage in basic international commerce. A sharp decline recently in Venezuela’s oil supply to Jamaica raises questions as to the former’s administrative and commercial capacity.

Likewise are reports of foreign oil shippers seizing cargo in lieu of the non-payment of shipping fees by the Venezuelan State oil-firm, PdVSA.

Further, the Venezuelan Government’s seizure of the General Motors (GM) plant could well dampen foreign enthusiasm to invest in new or existing projects, even as we note the key role of foreign multinational oil/ gas firms to develop the Dragon and Loran Manatee Fields.

The fact of massive confrontations between protesters and the police, and the State’s banning of one opposition leader from politics for 15 years and the jailing of another, all suggest to us a hardening of positions between the government and opposition.

All this against a continued economic deterioration.

The Venezuelan Government stands accused by the opposition of economic ineptness and political heavy-handedness, while it in turn alleges a concerted plot by some to hoard State-subsidised foodstuffs and so profiteer, causing shortages and social distress.

Hyperinflation, dwindling foreign reserves, non-diversification from a hydrocarbon monoculture, huge social/political polarisation and rampant criminality can hardly be wished away overnight. Pending resolution, the internal woes of this hydrocarbon juggernaut will be eyed by many, with recent concerns expressed by the United Nations, European Union and US Government.

How will maverick US President Donald Trump view next year’s Venezuelan presidential election, given President Nicolas Maduro’s bizarre donation of US$500,000 to his inauguration ceremony? While a peaceful Venezuela is certainly in TT’s best interest, our only clout towards resolution is limited to joining international forums to advocate for good sense to prevail. Meanwhile, with global uncertainty now on our doorstep, the TT Government must heed the adage, “When your neighbour’s house is on fire...”