Oxford Business Group annual economic review of Trinidad and Tobago

These statistics are contained in OBG’s second annual economic review of this country, “The Report: Trinidad and Tobago 2016”, the publication of which was launched at Hyatt Regency, Port-of-Spain on Monday.

Global CEO of OBG, Andrew Jeffreys, said “this shows that local companies are seizing this time to ramp-up capacity and retool their businesses. At the same time, there are indications that the private sector will be the engine of this growth.” He noted that compiling the data involved more than ten months of “first-hand economic research, based primarily on discussions with people like you – stakeholders from the public sector, the private sector, and academia.” The 2016 report presents “an exhaustive investment overview” of the local economy ranging from financial services, tourism, energy, and includes a chapter dedicated to Tobago.

Referring to the fact that the global economy is still recovering from the lingering impacts of the financial crisis which began nearly a decade ago, and that many Emerging markets “have taken a further hit from the significant fall in commodities prices”, Jeffreys said it is hard for some markets to implement necessary reforms, given the sheer size of their population and the scale of infrastructural challenges as well as numerous legacy issues.

“Things are different” in TT though because of its “far more manageable size and benefits from a long history of political stability and prudent management of financial resources.” “Furthermore,” Jeffreys stated, “there is, in general, a consensus on what needs to be done, and open discussion on the problems that remain. The tools for recovery are ready and available, and we believe that TT is taking many of the steps that will create long term growth.

Most importantly, we are hopeful that after two years of decline, growth will return in 2017.” The OBG Global CEO said while slumping global energy prices have had an impact, investor confidence in the energy industry’s longer-term prospects remain firm.

“Indeed, there are a number of large scale energy sector projects that have continued despite the downturn, from the Juniper and Sercan projects, to Angostura Phase 3, to the onshore compression project and the new petrochemical complex. In addition, there have also been some promising developments in deep-water - such as BHP’s LeClerc well, just the type of project that has been shelved in many other countries we cover. Moreover, with its years of experience in the sector and strategic location, (TT) is also well placed to export its energy services to emerging markets such as Ghana, Guyana and even Venezuela,” Jeffreys said.

Challenges remain, however, and “several steps need to be taken for TT to improve and expand” its economy.

“The mantra of the day is diversification. This will become more pronounced the longer oil and gas prices remain at their current levels and the cost of production increases as assets age. Part of the solution lies in the expansion of trade links. As a member of the WTO and a leader in CARICOM, TT should leverage its trading relationships and develop additional export-oriented industries,” Jeffreys advised.