NACTA: Low turnout in local polls

“Voters express very little interest in the local elections and there is widespread disenchantment with both the ruling PNM administration and opposition UNC,” NACTA said in a statement on Friday. “Many say their hopes and expectations for the promised change of September 2015 have been shattered as their living conditions have worsened over the last year. “Nevertheless, the PNM has the advantage to win the local elections as UNC is not showing any traction with voters saying it is not a credible alternative.” The latest poll sees a close battle for control of Siparia, Chaguanas, and Sangre Grande corporations, but with the PNM retaining the corporations it controls and making some gains. “Less than 20 percent of eligible voters say they will cast ballots in the elections,” said NACTA. “There is more enthusiasm among PNM supporters than among UNC supporters. This gives the PNM an advantage to retain or capture swing electoral districts, and, as such, maintain, or wrest control of, or tie certain certain corporations (like Rio Claro and Chaguanas) currently controlled by the UNC.” The survey suggests the UNC is leading PNM four to three in Siparia, with two seats too close to call which will determine control of the corporation. In Chaguanas, UNC is leading PNM four to two, with two seats too close to call the latter which will decide if it is a tie or a UNC controlled corporation.

In Sangre Grande, PNM is leading in six seats and the UNC in two seats, but with four seats uncertain, with a PNM sweep not impossible. No other party will win a seat in Grande, and they are viewed as spoilers as they will lose their deposits, NACTA said.

“Turnout will be key to the electoral outcome in swing districts, and so far the PNM has the advantages of incumbency with resources of the State at its disposal.” PNM will win Sangre Grande Based on this trend NACTA predicts a PNM win of all eight seats on the Toco/Sangre Grande Regional Corporation.

“With the political opposition badly divided in the Sangre Grande regional corporation, the incumbent PNM is on course to create history by sweeping all eight seats up for grabs,” said NACTA. “The three way split in the opposition base makes it an almost walkover for the PNM.

The party faces virtually no threat of losing.” The poll, by NACTA head Dr Vishnu Bisram, is based on an ongoing field study and polls done over the last four months.

“Based on trends in this survey and the findings of recent surveys, the PNM will comfortably retain four of the five seats it is defending in Grande,” said NACTA.

“It is also leading in two other seats and the UNC is leading in two seats, but neither party has a majority in those four seats suggesting they can go either way.” NACTA said the other two parties in the fray will not win a seat but lose their deposits, and be seen simply as spoilers in a PNMUNC fight.

“Voters are disenchanted with the PNM but they do not consider the UNC or the minor parties as credible alternatives,” said NACTA. “They want something different that is not anywhere in the horizon.” NACTA predicts the PNM will win two aldermen and the UNC will get one, with the fourth likely to go to the UNC, even though the PNM could actually win all four.

“It is not improbable for PNM to sweep all four aldermen if the opposition votes are severely divided for each party to cause the UNC to fall well below 25 percent minimum threshold mark; the UNC is just floating above that mark.”Saying the division of the opposition helps the PNM, NACTA said a united opposition could have put up a good fight. An earlier NACTA poll in Diego Martin and in Port-of-Spain also predicts sweeps of all the seats and aldermen.