Shifting politics

Though the results must be duly confirmed and reported on by the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) it would appear that the ruling PNM has retained its dominance in the island, though it lost ground somewhat. Two seats went to Watson Duke and his fledgling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Such a result was not unforeseeable.

It was predicted by a Newsday- commissioned HHB and Associates poll. But it stood to reason that the PNM’s 12-0 whitewash could not be maintained three years later. It is the nature of politics that the popularity of the ruling party dips.

What might concern PNM officials however is the choice of the Tobago people to back the PDP, a relatively untested entity. Other options were available. The people rejected some experienced hands, including people who have already served at the national ministerial level and at the THA level as well.

Clearly there is appetite in Tobago for something new, which itself speaks volumes.

The PDP’s claiming of two districts could reflect a deeper malaise with the established politics.

There will no doubt be much analysis of why the PDP fared better than the Ashworth Jack-led Tobago Organisation of the People (TOP) in 2013, considering the TOP had once enjoyed substantial support in the island. Duke is considered something of a renegade figure. But clearly he has been embraced to an extent, assuming the vote in the two districts was not motivated by merely pique over the PNM’s stewardship.

For Duke, the result caps a roller- coaster series of events for his personal fortunes. His trade union credentials were questioned by some over settlements with the People’s Partnership coalition in relation to public service salary negotiations.

Then came a highly-publicised court matter, the timing of which has also raised eyebrows – though it will be for the court to determine guilt or innocence.

Even on election day questions were raised about the nature of an apparent police accompaniment provided to Duke.

Still, what cannot be denied is that Duke now becomes one trade unionist to succeed in winning votes in an election. In recent times, many others have failed.

There will be some examination of the causes of the mixed fortunes of trade unionists when they go to the polls.

Both the Christlyn Moore-led Tobago Forwards and the Movement For Transformation, headed by former PNM Tobago East MP Eudine Job-Davis, did not win any of the 12 seats, although there were some close calls in some electoral districts. No doubt much will depend on confirmed results. Whatever the outcome, lessons have to be learned in terms of how these campaigns were administered.

While opinion polls predicting results are of great interest, it would also be useful in future for diagnostics analysing how campaigns went. The business of electioneering is quite arbitrary and it is sometimes felt that certain issues or moves have certain effects on voting. Yet, without some form of investigation, this is speculative.

Finally, disturbing questions were raised by the fact that Parliament had to convene a last-minute sitting of the House of Representatives in order to validate the election.

What incompetence! It does not bode well for our democracy, which deserves far better. While some insist that even the validating law is defective, we do not see a judge frustrating the will of the Parliament and the people by voiding the result.

The lesson here is that the State cannot afford to fall asleep at the wheel – whether it is Christmas, New Year’s or Carnival.