Indo, Afro-Trini voting patterns

THE RESULTS of the 1986 general election caused some to draw premature conclusions about the large-scale shifting of the Afro base from the PNM. The notion that there was a massive disaffection of Afro-Trini PNM voters who switched their support to the NAR was somewhat misconceived. There was some movement of Afro-Trini support from the PNM to the NAR but only marginally as will be illustrated later. The overwhelming Afro-Trini base of the PNM remained anchored to the party in this election.

There was also the view that corruption brought down the PNM government. It was true that John O’Halloran was convicted in 1986 in a US court that confirmed his fraudulent machinations as a member and office holder of the party. Its voter impact was, however, very limited. There were many corruption scandals prior to 1986 under the PNM regime but it did not result in its electoral defeat.

Then there was the sharp decline in oil prices prior to 1986 which impacted government revenues disastrously and resulted in vastly reduced government expenditure.

While these were all contributory factors in varying degrees, they were of secondary importance.

To determine the main reason for the PNM defeat, it is necessary to examine the political landscape prior to the 1986 general election.

After having fought each other in the 1981 general election, the two major parties opposed to the PNM — the ONR and ULF — came together in what was called an “accommodation” to contest the 1983 local government election and present a united front to the PNM.

There was an agreement on the allocation of seats whereby one candidate in each electoral district was selected from one or the other of the two parties as a sole opponent of the PNM candidate. The arrangement worked beautifully and the PNM was thoroughly thrashed in these elections.

Thereafter, representatives of the ONR and the ULF met regularly to maintain a close working relationship with an eye to the 1986 general election. It was the coming together of these two major parties representing a unity of opposition forces which constituted the most dominant factor in the comprehensive defeat of the PNM in the 1986 general election. There ought to be a lesson here for opposition parties.

This joint political venture was responsible for the huge turnout of voters who generally abstained in previous elections, convinced that a PNM victory was a foregone conclusion in PNM-dominant constituencies and indeed nationally.

The DAC under ANR Robinson came in towards the end of the negotiations to join the coalition of opposition forces but its support was largely confined to Tobago.

This credible prospect of a PNM defeat motivated tens of thousands of voters to go to the polls in 1986, who otherwise would have abstained. Thus, total voter turnout increased from 415,416 in 1981 to 573,263 in 1986 — an increase of just about 158,000. Some of this could have been due to the increase in voter eligibility from the 1981 election but the bulk of it would have been previously abstaining voters registering their voting presence. It will be recalled that in 1981 the combined vote for the ONR and ULF was 154,485. In 1986, the NAR garnered a whopping 379,808 votes. The question is where was this additional 225,323 votes located ethnically and electorally.

My assessment is that some of these “new” votes would have come from Afro-Trinis who previously supported the PNM and shifted to the NAR but these numbers were small, though they would have contributed to the defeat of the PNM candidates in traditional PNM constituencies.

In my view by far the overwhelming proportion of this additional support c a m e f r o m non-Afro- Trinis enthused with the prospect of a new political dispensation.