THE BATTLE FOR THE MARGINALS

The ruling PNM might consider itself to have 19 “safe” seats in Trinidad in its traditional urban base, in addition to hoping to retain the two Tobago seats it currently holds.

The UNC and COP seem likely to retain 15 seats mainly located in their rural heartland. About seven seats are marginal, or even indeterminable.

So the PNM seems to be ahead at present. If the PNM were to win the upcoming general election, the next questions that would arise are firstly would they get enough seats — 31 seats — to win a parliamentary special majority of the House of Representatives to enable them to radically rewrite the Constitution, and secondly who would win enough seats to appoint the Leader of the Opposition, the UNC or COP?

Newsday took a closer look at the new seats created by boundary changes and at what to expect to occur in the marginal constituencies, based on the 2002 general election results plus recent boundary changes to the constituencies.

Five new seats have arisen in each of the former seats of Arouca South/North, Oropouche, Chaguanas, and Ortoire/Mayaro, plus the new constituency of La Horquetta/Talparo.

Marginal seats are likely to be Tunapuna, St Joseph, Barataria/San Juan, Pointe-a-Pierre, San Fernando West, Mayaro, and Princes Town South/Tableland.

By SEAN DOUGLAS

MARGINAL SEATS:

1. Barataria/San Juan

This constituency has the same boundaries as in 2002. The then UNC candidate Dr Fuad Khan won last time by 8,391 votes to the PNM’s 7,486 votes. However Khan has since declared himself to be “Independent UNC”, and this time the PNM should win if it’s a three-horse race with vote-splitting between Khan and another candidate or candidates put up by the UNC and/or COP, unless Khan can convince both UNC and COP that he’s their man.

FORECAST: PNM 7,486 and a possible split between UNC/COP/IND 8,391.

2. Pointe-a-Pierre

UNC-turned-COP MP Gillian Lucky won this seat last time.

New boundary changes now work in favour of the PNM.

Changes to the constituency would add three Couva South polling divisions and one from Tabaquite but lose five divisions to Naparima and lose five to Tabaquite . Overall these changes are expected to halve the COP/UNC margin over the PNM, and a three-way fight could damage Lucky’s chances especially as her opponents are rumoured to be the UNC’s Wade Mark and PNM’s Christine Kangaloo.

FORECAST: UNC/COP 8,755; PNM 7,146. MARGIN: 1,609.

3. Princes Town South/Tableland

This seat is mainly comprised of the western two-thirds of the former Ortoire/Mayaro, plus bits of Naparima and the former Princes Town constituency. In 2002 the PNM’s Franklin Khan won the old Ortoire/Mayaro seat by a 304 margin but the new boundary configurations switch that edge to the UNC.

Twenty polling divisions in former Ortoire/Mayaro last election gave the UNC/COP 6,150 votes and the PNM 5,400 votes, Naparima gives the UNC/COP some 2,084 votes and the PNM 980 votes, while former Princes Town gives the UNC/COP 1,470 votes and the PNM 1,730 votes.

FORECAST: UNC/COP 9,704 votes; PNM 8,310 votes.

4. Tunapuna

Tunapuna is the barometer seat in general elections, in that traditionally whoever wins Tunapuna wins the country.

The PNM’s Eddie Hart in 1995 won it by just 200 votes, increased to 624-vote margin in 2002 (PNM 10,154; UNC 9,530 votes), and now with boundary changes his margin is expected to be a near 1,000-votes.

Fascinatingly in 1995 the PNM’s 200-plus margin over the UNC was less than the votes won by the NAR candidate, ie. Vote-splitting had let the PNM win.

This was a repeat of 1991 where the PNM won with just 47 percent of votes cast, compared to the 51 percent cast against the PNM and split 29 percent for the UNC and 22 percent for the NAR. This time Tunapuna gains a polling division from St Ann’s East, and loses four divisions to the newly-created Lopinot/Bon Air West seat.

The changes are expected to slightly strengthen the PNM’s majority.

FORECAST: PNM 9,674; UNC/COP 8,682.

5. St Joseph

The PNM could strengthen its grip on this marginal.

The shifting of two Bamboo polling divisions to the St Augustine constituency will subtract 618 votes from the PNM and a massive 1,875 from the COP/UNC. The addition of two polling divisions from Calvary Hill in San Juan in the St Ann’s West constituency will add 990 new votes to the PNM in St Joseph and add a mere 126 to the COP/UNC. All changes overall add 373 votes to the PNM but subtract 1,749 votes from the COP/UNC.

FORECAST: PNM 8,496, UNC 7,603.

6.San Fernando West

This constituency gains two polling divisions from San Fernando East and loses three divisions to Oropouche East and Oropouche West.

The PNM will lose 1,103 votes to the two Oropouche seats and gain 238 votes from San Fernando East, the constituency held by Prime Minister Patrick Manning. The UNC will lose a huge 2,016 votes to the two Oropouche seats and gain just 85 votes from San Fernando East.

FORECAST: PNM 8,226; COP/UNC 6,911.

7. Mayaro

Mayaro is made up of part of former Ortoire/Mayaro plus areas of former Nariva. The 14 polling divisions from Nariva seat last election gave the PNM 2,004 votes and the UNC 4,779 votes. Some 20 divisions from Ortoire/Mayaro gave the PNM 5,635 votes and the UNC 4,562 votes.

FORECAST: UNC/COP 9,341 votes; PNM 7,640 votes.

NEW SEATS:

1. The extra seat created by splitting Ortoire/Mayaro into two seats — Mayaro and Princes Town South/Tableland, which we already considered.

2. La Horquetta/Talparo: This is a new seat created by adding 12 Arouca South polling divisions, one from Arima, and eight from Caroni East. It will likely be a PNM safe seat.

Based on the last election results, this time the PNM should win 6,200 votes compared to the UNC/COP 3,700 votes.

3. Chaguanas East: PNM has a deficit of 1,200 votes in order to win, based on 2002 results, making the seat a UNC/COP marginal seat but in a three-way fight it could go any way including to the PNM.

4. Lopinot/Bon Air West: Lopinot/Bon Air West is one of three seats that were created by carving up the two existing seats of Arouca North and Arouca South, the other two being Arouca/Maloney and D’Abadie/O’Meara.

Lopinot/Bon Air West is mostly the former Arouca North where PNM got three-quarters of the votes cast in 2002. Now despite some minor changes in polling divisions the seat is set to stay solidly PNM and likewise Arouca/Maloney and D’Abadie/O’Meara also seem set to stay PNM safe seats.

5. Oropouche East: This seat is considered to be safely in traditional UNC heartland.

OTHER SEATS OF

INTEREST:

1. St Augustine: This seat is interesting because it is held by COP leader Winston Dookeran. But likely faces a strong challenge from the UNC. St Augustine gains from St Joseph the polling divisions #1501 and 1505 (which respectively vote at polling stations at Bamboo Grove Presbyterian School and Valsayn Teachers College); and St Augustine loses to Arouca/Maloney the polling divisions 1785 and 1787, which respectively vote at Tacarigua Presbyterian School and Dinsley/Trincity Govt Primary School).

The changes would add 618 votes to the PNM in St Augustine but subtract 1,797 votes, a net loss of 1,179. However the COP/UNC would gain 1,875 votes and lose just 822, making a net gain of 1,053 votes.

The net result based on the 2002 elections would be PNM 4,669 and COP/UNC 11,910 votes.

So while this seat had always traditionally been within the ambition of the PNM to win, it has now retreated further into COP/UNC territory. Dookeran is rumoured to be challenged by the UNC’s Vassant Bharath.

2. Cumuto/Manzanilla: This seat comprises the UNC-held Nariva being shifted northwards into the PNM territory of former Toco/Manzanilla. It included Nariva (28 polling divisions) added to nine PDs from Toco/Manzanilla. minus 14 PDs sent to the new Mayaro constitiuency. Cumuto/Manzanilla could move from being a UNC safe seat into a UNC marginal.

PNM should get 1,620 votes and UNC/COP get 1,700 from Toco/Manzanilla. From Nariva PNM gets 5,136 votes, UNC/COP gets 7,595 votes. The net result should be UNC/COP getting 9,295 votes and the PNM 6,756 votes.

PARTY REACTIONS:

COP election’s officer, Navi Muradali: “Based on an analysis of the 2000, 2001 and 2002 general elections we have 25 to 31 constituencies now identified as marginals.” He said these seats had been traditionally won by the UNC or PNM by a margin of just ten percent or less of the total votes cast. Muradali said the COP was structuring a programme of voter verification, registration membership-drive and canvassing. “We are now seeing it as an open game with these 25 to 31 seats.” He added that the COP would also contest the other ten seats too.

Muradali said the formula to win the election is to win a percentage of the PNM membership that is very disgruntled with the leadership of the PNM, plus those UNC supporters who are fed up with that party’s leadership. In addition, the COP would target young voters. He said if the COP succeeded in attracting UNC-defectors, PNM-defectors, first -time voters and traditional non-voters, then “we stand a very good chance of 25 to 31 seat.”

UNC vice chairman Vasant Bharat said the party is interested in all 41 seats, although its resources are limited.

He said, “What we will do with all the seats is that we will assess our strengths and weaknesses in each. This will allow us to determine if the seat is a winnable seat. If we assess that any seat, say a new seat is a winnable seat, let’s say it’s significantly over the middle, we will attach the necessary resource to give ourselves the beast opportunity.”

PNM PRO Jerry Narace said the party has always put up a candidate to contest every seat in each general election. Recent walkabouts led by Prime Minister Patrick Manning in Chaguanas West and Aranjuez suggest it is expecting to make serious inroads into traditionally non-PNM territory.

CONCLUSION:

This assessment is based on the 2002 general election results and the subsequent boundary changes. However, since then some 100,000 names have been added to the electoral list. Many other factors could determine the 2007 election outcome such as the manifesto proposals, party machinery and candidates personalities. In this latter category, the outcome of the retrial of UNC leader Basdeo Panday could be vital. His personal credibility could be key in the tussle in non-PNM seats such as Caroni East and Chaguanas West where the incumbent MP has defected from the UNC to COP. Further, a close contest between the COP and UNC is expected in Pointe-a-Pierre and San Fernando West.