UWI economist: make budget a “teachable moment”
In the 2017 Mid-Year Budget review, the finance minister said government expenditure was reduced from $63 billion in Fiscal 2015/16, to $53 billion in Fiscal 2017, a cut of $10 billion. Dr. Conrad said that was not enough. “I think some of the cuts that have been referenced and alluded to in the last budget are superficial. The gap still continues to widen. I don’t foresee that we have the luxury of selling off the assets that they had identified as one offs to generate some revenue. I think it is going to come down to going through line by line and determining where they need to make the appropriate reality checks.”
He said he also wanted to see a reduction in allocations to social welfare and “make work” programmes and said the budget presented government with a forum to educate the public, what he referred to as a “teachable moment”. Dr. Conrad said, “I also hope they would take the opportunity to explain to the general public the true fiscal position and take (this) as a moment to educate not just specific groups but everyone.” At the same time, he said it must be made clear to individual or specific interests that wage increases and other concessions cannot be facilitated at this point in time.
“I think that the budget could be used to send this message that there needs to be fiscal re-alignment, reflective of revenues.”
Dr. Conrad told Business Day that this budget will present the government with it’s last opportunity to introduce these re-alignments. He said that as this government’s third budget, any hereafter will be tailored with elections in mind. “It will be a missed opportunity to re-align fiscally, which should have been done last budget,” he said.
On the continuing issue of foreign exchange shortages, Dr. Conrad said: “Our source of foreign exchange has been the energy sector and I think that what most people miss is that the non-energy sector has been running a deficit in the vicinity of 20-25 per cent. That deficit has always been covered by the energy sector. What is happening now is that the non-energy deficit is being reflected in all shapes and forms. There are no short term ways to address the shortage in foreign exchange. Therefore, I think what we may need to see is some return to some sort of managed environment for foreign exchange, which is going to create a lot of problems for individuals, but it is not abnormal to return to that bit of control.”
He noted that the Central Bank has been injecting significant reserves into the system, which is likely to deplete them and spawn problems of its own. “At the current rate of spending, I think our import cover will fall to under nine months,” he said.
Dr. Conrad also said that government appeared to have forgotten that it can make use of monetary policy as well. “I think the only indication of monetary policy I have seen is injection of foreign exchange. Aside from that, the heart of the matter is not being addressed. I know some people have pointed to the possibility of letting the currency be devalued a little more. I think what we stand to lose is greater than what we stand to gain.”
He added that, “Given our industrial relations climate, I really don’t think that at short notice and at low cost, we can really increase production in any meaningful area.” Beyond being a teachable moment for the government, the economist said the budget also needs to be more forward looking. “I think this budget should be part of a road map for the next five years, even if it may not be within their purview. There should be a concrete five year plan that should make this budget part of a longer term strategy which I thought should have happened budgets ago.”