Mamaguy by Israel?

THE SO-CALLED Road Map, the initiative of US President George W Bush to broker a peaceful settlement between the Israelis and the Palestinians, now seems destined to go the way of all previous attempts to bring this age-old conflict to an end. The Road Map calls for both sides to take a journey to peace through a programme of simultaneous action — beginning with the Israelis withdrawing troops from Palestinian areas and halting expansion of Jewish settlements on the West Bank, and the Palestinians curbing the activity of militant groups such as Hamas and putting an end to suicide bombing attacks on Israeli soldiers and citizens. Since the leaders of both sides have initially accepted the terms of the Road Map, the world dares to hope again that the prospect for peace between these two warring peoples would at last become a reality.

But now it seems that the Bush plan has attracted little more than lip service from the leaders as the tit-for-tat violence between the Israelis and the Palestinians continues without any apparent concession to the demands of the Road Map. In fact, Tuesday's attack by an Israeli helicopter on Hamas leader Abdel-Aziz al-Rantissi in which a bodyguard and a bystander were killed may well spell the doom of the Road Map which was launched a week ago at a summit meeting in Jordan. Rantissi, who was wounded in his leg and chest, vowed revenge from his hospital bed in Gaza, saying that Israel and its "pig" leader Ariel Sharon would never be safe.

President Bush has issued the required ritual-like condemnation of the Israeli attempt to eliminate the Hamas leader, and the action may even help him to understand the recalcitrant and obstreperous nature of the Israeli leadership but, poor fellow, what can he really do to rein in the Sharon regime and the rampant Jewish military? It is no secret that Mr Bush does not dare apply any serious pressure on Israel for fear of upsetting or alienating the Jewish-American community whose economic clout in his country is formidable, if not overpowering.

In this entire situation, the Israelis know that they have it made, that they don't even have to listen to  Bush. They know that the $3 billion in aid they receive from the US every year is untouchable; they know that this money has been used largely to build their settlements in occupied Palestinian territory; they know that the infrastructure grids and road system they have laid down in these areas are intended to connect the settlements and weave them into a whole; and, of course, they know that they have the military might to keep the Palestinians under subjection so there is no question of being forced to abandon their occupation. Therefore, while they may find it convenient to go through the motions of another peace process, the Israelis also reserve the right to attack and punish the Palestinians and their militant groups whenever they see the need to do so.

In these circumstances, what are the real prospects for peace? It seems to us that the Israelis are engaging in a huge mamaguy since we know there is no question of their voluntary withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza and the abandonment of their settlements there. It will be interesting then to see how they will negotiate the journey of the Road Map. On the Palestinian side, the big question is whether the new Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is recognised as the leader authorised to negotiate a peace accord without Mr Arafat and whether he has the authority and influence to keep Hamas and other militant Palestinian groups in check. The world will always hope for peace, that the deep seated bitterness existing there can be overcome; but we are not optimistic.