Dealer’s Choice tipped for Bunny Prize

The countdown to the 2004 edition of the Royal Oak Derby is almost completed, with race fever contagious among the racing fraternity in the country. Although many will audition, only one will be chosen for the part of lead actor and today we review the candidates for the “Bunny Prize” for last place.  The candidates come from across the Caribbean and once again feature contenders from Jamaica but not Barbados this time. Because of the licking they suffered on Independence Day, the Bajans are still in denial. In traditional fashion though we go back. In 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001, we got it right although in 2002, we lost by a long two-lengths, so a return to glory is the objective of this analysis (which took all of five and a half minutes). Last year, we were successful again and this year should be another good one for us. What follows, we hope is understood, for what it is, an analysis of the inability of the ability of the three-year-olds on display. In a race that requires ability to win, we look at the disabilities that lead to 14th and last place.

The outsiders for this contest are easy to diagnose and their pedigree suggests that they will be doing their best work at the business end of the race. And they will not leave their owners bankrupt and in debt since they are money earners for the Arima Race Club and the “empty your pockets” bets for the punters. French Academy  is at 1000-1 , with the Poon Tips already in a merry mood, and her trainer brimming with confidence for an uncontested lead up to 1400 metres. Mucho Tempo is at 500-1-to place dead last in this field, but the musical chairs of opinions from jockeys and trainers particularly those involving “under pressure” jockey Ricardo Jadoo, suggests that he may in fact have been over-exposed especially in his latest race, and suggest as well, a different training regime could have brought better results. Melanie My Love, from the powerful Maniram “Boboy” Maharaj stables is one that can win, if there are lots of rain and a fast pace. This talented filly is in at 300-1. Kato is from confident connections in terms of ownership.  However while this colt has shown some promise in commercials, he has  failed to perform under lights on most occasions and seems destined to a bit role. He is now at 250-1.

Private Affair is with the wily tipster, who has a lot of knowledge as his trainer may still find that he would need to borrow the jet speed of a Concorde  to win, but like his trainer can be a contender and is in at 150-1. The Jamaicans are here in numbers, three to be exact. Already there is some bumblecoth betting for one of the Jamaicans. If there is one potent signal it is that not many Jamaicans have made the trip. In the meanwhile, while the few Jamaicans and some jockeys jostle to stay out of this last place betting, the bookmakers (and now there are fewer and fewer and fewer) or the OTBs are not taking any betting on this, for fear of a backlash from concerned and knowledgeable customers. Did I remind everyone that this bet is only available in certain parts of Trinidad, not even in  Tobago still, after all these years. Don’t the Arima Race Club have any incisive marketing guys like us? At 100-1 is the Jamaican Seattle Sue, with a Trini in the saddle adding fuel to the fire that a Trini man can ride a Jamaican better than one of their own.

At 90-1 is Uram, a talented colt with potential, and at 80-1 is La Tonia, hoping not to behave like La Toya Jackson at the Superbowl, and leave her best race in the intermission. Trinidadian poker players, turned gamblers on race days are putting their well-earned cash on Barbadian Juan Crawford not being able to steer Uram the right way around this track, and he may find himself in some difficulty racing backwards. Yashoda, is at 50-1, but the trainer looks nervous and the jockey far too tentative, perhaps it is the whole concept of gambling to win that has everyone confused, but this trainer is a master at outsiders and needs some luck at last in racing. Chief Commander is another colt that has shown promise on occasions, and is one that could run into a place at big odds however and so after  some moments of positive conviction, his odds have lengthened from 15-1 to 20-1 (without a running nose or any lasix). Now though the real betting begins, because at 10-1 is Takeover from the NAP stables, who have a lot of accounting connections and this may account for his final placing. This year we have a bunch of contenders and  a queue of gamblers waiting to lay on these prices, the bookies are a little concerned that some trainers and owners connected with several of the contenders are generously unloading blue notes as the odds drop on their horse.

Fast Company is at 8-1 and there are a lot of takers and there has been the need for an additional cashier to be called upon to assist with the situation, as the crowds are swarming to the $100 minimum bet line. Here is a case of a macco not getting the news first, unlike Newsday, of course. The two favourites are two talented sons of the soil. They are homebred and locally ridden, they will have no excuses and on their day would take a lot of beating in this race, though, the conditions of the betting and the distance of the race (2,000 metres) suggests that theirs will be a tussle to the line. At 1-1 is — Silver Bullet, who is full of speed and lacks stamina. The overwhelming favourite at 1-5 though is Dealers Choice , whose connections are happy just to be in the parade ring. Between the two of them though there is a private bet as to who will do better than whom, in fact, their connections all believe, as do the other 13 owners, that they can gain a place in the valuable contest. If wishes were horses, maybe.