Record turnout in US election

AS many as 125 million Americans yesterday turned out to choose between president George W Bush and Democrat challenger John Kerry in the  United States presidential election, according to Reuters news agency. Associated Press similarly estimated the turnout to be 117.5 million to 121 million people. Observers are predicting a record turnout to rival the 63 percent turnout in the 1960 election between president Richard Nixon and Democrat challenger John F Kennedy.  Yesterday there were many anecdotal reports that the queues at polling stations around the country were longer than ever in recent memory. This high turnout occurred despite widespread rain which failed to deter voters. Commentators have said a high turnout favours the challenger. MTV has run a “Rock the Vote” campaign to urge youngsters to vote, which along with rock stars like Bruce Springstein and Cheryl Crow endorsing Kerry, could be the factor to tilt the election to the Democrats.

But opinion polls and even the odds offered by bookmakers, have over the past week consistently put Bush slightly ahead, albeit by a edge that is less than the margin of error inherent in the survey. It is quite probable, however, that if these polls are taken by telephone and using existing voter-registration lists, that the polls could have underestimated new voters such as the young and ethnic groups like Afro-Americans and West Indians — all likely to lean to Kerry. News reports have consistently said the two top election issues are respectively “Terrorism” and “Iraq” (rather than domestic issues like jobs, tax, health, welfare) with polls saying Americans more trust Bush on foreign policy than Kerry. Despite independent candidate Ralph Nader dubbing Bush as “a corporation disguised as a human being,” Bush seems to project a more defined personality — love it or loathe it — than Kerry.

In a recent speech First Lady Laura Bush warmed many hearts with a tale of George W putting up his feet on his mother’s coffee table, only to be soundly scolded by Barbara Bush Senior, ignoring George Bush Senior’s protestations, “But he’s the president of the United States!” In contrast there’s a feeling that in his poses wind-surfing and duck-hunting with shotgun under arm, Kerry has been trying too hard to create a persona, and in fact ended up looking somewhat phoney. Each of the 50 states runs its own type of election. Except for Colorado, whoever wins the most votes in any given state is allocated all of that state’s votes for the electoral college which actually elects the president. Last election Bush accumulated more electoral college votes than Al Gore, despite less people voting for him in total.

With some States already known to be either solidly Republican or solidly Democrat, in this election there are ten battleground states or swing states that will determine the outcome. Some observers have even narrowed the key states down to three — Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. But with all the intricacies of 50 different voting systems and given the recent experience of Bush in 2000 beating Gore by 500 votes in Florida, both parties have an army of lawyers on standby to make appropriate legal challenges. Despite much optimism for an early result being voiced by Bush and Kerry and media commentators, it is entirely possible that a clear result may not be forthcoming for a long time after the polling stations close. The last polling stations to close — on the West Coast — were due to close at about 7 pm Pacific Time, or 11 pm Trinidad time.

...Bush ahead

US President George W Bush was ahead of Democrat challenger, John Kerry, as results trickled in last night up to press time. To win takes 270 of the 538 electoral college votes (EVs) from the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Bush had so far won 193 EVs, winning 19 States and taking 21.92 million or 52 percent of votes casts. Kerry had taken 112 EVs in 11 States and the District of Columbia, taking 20.09 million or 48 percent of early ballots. In vital Florida, Bush had 52 percent of votes in the 78 percent of precincts counted. Kerry took 60 percent of votes cast in the 40 percent of precincts tallied in Pennsylvania. In the 26 percent of precincts tallied in Ohio, Bush was on 52 percent to Kerry’s 47 percent.