Mini General Election?

Is the outcome of the January 17 Tobago House of Assembly (THA) election being regarded by the main antagonists, the People’s National Movement and the Democratic Action Congress, as a possible political weather vane for the next Trinidad and Tobago General Election, constitutionally due in 2007? The People’s National Movement (PNM) Government — the party controls both the House of Representatives and the THA — is pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into the immediate pre-election leasing of two ferries, the MV Sonia and The Cat, to provide an effective sea bridge between Tobago and Trinidad. In addition, it has leased planes in an effort to strengthen the air bridge.

The leasing of the air and sea ferries, while of particular importance to Tobago, in that it would ensure not only an ease to the transport of agricultural produce and small manufactures from Tobago and facilitate the trans-shipment of imported goods for the sister isle, offloaded at Trinidad ports, would also allow for ready access for passengers travelling between the two islands. A major ingredient is that the faster movement of goods will mean that cargo trans-shipped from Trinidad, because of sharply reduced overall warehousing charges, will cost less in Tobago supermarkets and stores.

There is an additional plus. Possible spoilage of Tobago agricultural produce will be reduced to a minimum thereby placing the goods in a far more competitive position vis a vis regional and overseas produce. This will mean an incentive to Tobago farmers to produce more and with this the benefit of a potential increase in employment opportunities. All of this would not have been lost on the PNM Administration, whether at the level of the Central Government or of the THA. Nor would it have been lost on the DAC, the only other party apart from the PNM which will be fielding 12 candidates. The National Alliance for Reconstruction, the official Opposition in the Tobago House of Assembly, is only contesting two of the 12 THA seats and because of this can no longer lay claim to being the alternative governing party of the Tobago House of Assemby.

Any clear cut victory by either the People’s National Movement or the Democratic Action Congress in the THA election will be taken by the victor as an indicator of which party would likely win the Tobago seats in the 2007 constitutionally due General Election. At present the political configuration in the wholly elected House of Representatives is 20 PNM and 16 UNC members. Tobago has two seats in the House of Representatives, both represented by the PNM. Following on recommendations by the Elections and Boundaries Commission there will be an additional three seats in the elected House, with one going to Tobago.

Should there be a DAC victory in the January 17 Tobago House of Assembly poll, followed up later with the DAC winning all three seats in the next General Election this would place the PNM in a politically uncomfortable position. Despite a public distancing of the Democratic Action Congress and the United National Congress from each other in the run-up to the THA elections, which the UNC is not contesting, some political observers, nonetheless, view the DAC as a UNC surrogate. But the public posturing, apart, by the UNC and the DAC, next Monday’s scheduled THA election is likely to be viewed by many as a mini General Election and by the cognoscenti as the prelude to the real thing, whenever it is called.