NACTA: Panday ahead of Progressives

These are some of the findings of the ongoing North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) tracking poll which has been closely monitoring the UNC’s internal elections campaign over the last month.

The poll’s findings show that while the race for control of the executive is very tight, the Patriots are holding a slight lead over the Progressives as both slates enter the home stretch today. While NACTA was easily able to predict former attorney general Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj’s victory in the June 2001 internal elections, "predicting the winner this year is proving difficult because finding the voters is like looking for a needle in a haystack."

The poll said the outcome of today’s elections will hinge largely on how many voters each slate registered and which slate will be able to bring their voters out. The Patriots have a 55 to 45 percent edge over the Progressives in terms of the UNC membership but it is unlikely that all members of the Patriots slate will win their posts by huge margins. While neither the Patriots nor Progressives are expected to score landslide victories today and the new UNC executive could be a composition of both slates, the Patriots appear more likely to score such a victory but the possibility of an upset victory by the Progressives cannot be discounted.

Many voters are pessimistic about the chances for party reform or the UNC’s ability to defeat the PNM in the next general elections if there is a clean sweep of all posts by the Patriots. UNC financier/deputy political leader candidate (Progres-sives) Jack Warner could be the key towards the establishment of a balanced executive if he wins one of the three deputy leader posts up for grabs.

Momentum for the Progressives has increased since Warner entered the fray and some Patriots supporters have joined the Progressives bandwagon because they support Warner’s call for unity and reconciliation in the UNC. In contrast, Dookeran has not been able to woo many Patriots supporters away from Panday’s banner. Warner must pull at least six percent of the Patriots’ support if the Progressives are to ensure a victory tomorrow.

Thus far, Warner appears to be doing well in the contest for deputy leadership but Patriots contenders Kamla Persad-Bissessar and Wade Mark are ahead in the race. Warner’s Progressives colleague, Dr Roodal Moonilal (who is also vying for a deputy leader post), is "close behind" them. Dr Tim Gopeesingh of the Patriots is trailing behind them but if there is a straight slate vote, Gopeesingh, Persad-Bissessar and Mark will take all three deputy leader posts.

The Progressives’ Gerald Yetming is narrowly trailing Patriots’ Vasant Bharath in the deputy chairman race while Dr Hamza Rafeeq of the Patriots is ahead of Rabindra Moonan for the policy and strategy officer post. Dr Suruj Rambachan of the Patriots seems to have the research officer post in the bag while Chandresh Sharma is way ahead of Joe Pires in the race for party treasurer.

Two of the toughest battles in today’s elections will be between Sadiq Baksh and Kelvin Ramnath for the party organiser post and between Stephen Kangal and Daphne Phillips.

While Ramnath’s utterances during the campaign has caused some Patriots supporters to switch their allegiance to Baksh, NACTA’s findings show that Ramnath could still win if this crossover is small.

A large section of the voters participating in today’s election are holding fast to the position that Panday should reconcile with Maharaj and other former UNC members. Maharaj and Panday have expressed a willingness to speak with each other but have yet to do so.