Shhh... we not talking reserves

The only person who really took a stab at it was the Chamber President, Rampersad Motilal who’s also the President of Methanol Holdings Limited. Not even energy economist, Gregory McQuire in reviewing 2005 and previewing 2006, wanted to touch the issue of natural gas reserves.

Motilal said the country may now have to consider whether it should delay new commitments until the reserve ratio improves to a more acceptable level. Data over the past decade shows that just below 1 TCF (Trillion Cubic Feet) of gas per year was being added to proven reserves.

"Given that we will consume approximately 1.4 TCF this year, it is clear that adding 1 TCF of gas per year is insufficient," said Motilal.

He noted that the country’s proven reserves of natural gas stood at 18.8 TCF in January 2005 with probable reserves of 9 TCF and possible reserves of 7.1 TCF.

"Given that the rate of natural gas production in 2005 was approximately 3.2 billion cubic feet of gas per day, this would mean that we had approximately 16 years of proven reserves or approximately 24 years if we were to include the probable reserves," he said.

"In 2006, the average daily usage is expected to increase to 3.8 bcf per day with full production from Atlantic LNG Train 4. At this rate of usage we have approximately 14 years of proven reserves or approximately 20 years if we include probable reserves."

Atlantic LNG’s four production trains currently consume 60.3 percent of gas; methanol and ammonia consume 15.5 percent and 13.6 percent and power generation utilising 6.3 per cent.

Stating that reserves-to-production is an important indicator of the country’s capacity for natural gas based on industrialisation, Motilal asked whether there should be a minimum target of the reserves-to-production for about 20 years.

"If we go below the target, should we then consider a hiatus in new commitments to allow the exploration and production companies time to discover, prove up and develop the probable, possible and identified exploratory resources," he asked.