Dealing with murder

As for kidnappings, the various arrests made may well have helped in the reduction, especially given that there was apparent involvement by members of the security forces. But it is too early for the authorities to be complacent. Have the kidnapping gangs really been disrupted or are they only taking a rest? It is impossible to be sure, but if no one is kidnapped, or only a few persons are, over the remainder of the year, then it can be said that that particular scourge has been contained.

In the area of murder, however, no similar boasts can be made. Newsday on Monday and Tuesday published a complete list of victims for the year.

That list shows that murder in Trinidad and Tobago has very specific patterns. By far the greater number of victims, in the first instance, are male — almost 90 percent. And about two-thirds of those persons are under the age of 30. Also significant is the racial breakdown — just over 80 percent of the persons murdered are, going by surnames and locale, of African descent. Put another way, the greatest risk factors for murder in this country today are to be male, young, and to live along the East-West corridor. However, amongst murdered Indo-Trinidadians, about one-quarter of the victims were female — ie nearly twice the rate of female murder victims overall.

None of this will be news to the general populace, who have already intuited these patterns. Paradoxically, however, people tend to misread how statistics apply to them personally. Different surveys have shown that between half to two-thirds of the adult populace do not feel safe. But they have also shown, that Indo-Trinidadians and older persons are more likely to fear for their personal safety than Afro-Trinidadians and young people, even though statistically Indo-Trinidadians are four times less likely to be murdered than Afro-Trinidadians and older persons three times less likely. And Afro-Trinidadians continue to insist that it is only particular areas in their communities, especially Laventille and Morvant, which are crime-ridden.

This may indeed be so, but it does not alter the fact that, in this small nation of 1.3 million persons, the murder rate is 30 per 100,000 — a rate that places us amongst those countries with the highest murder rates in the world. However, the fact that the high murder rate has specific patterns is, in fact, cause for hope. It means that the factors which are causing the murders are also very specific, and so easier to identify.

Easy identification, however, does not necessarily mean easy solutions. It now seems clear, for instance, that the funds and structure of the Unemployment Relief Programme (URP) have provided incentives for murder. Yet, despite the assurances given many months ago by Social Development Minister Anthony Roberts, the Government does not appear to have the political fortitude to abandon the programme nor indeed even revamp it to throw out the criminal elements who have apparently taken over the URP.

What applies to the URP may well apply to other issues as well. If so, it means that the murder rate will only be reduced through decisive and innovative actions. But are the persons in authority up to this challenge? That is the question.