Competition for jobs

During a walkabout last week, Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley expressed concerns about deportees, but ended by saying the issues was largely out of TT hands and that the country could not turn away its nationals if they returned.

Meanwhile, Wayne Chance, Vision on a Mission head, has sounded warnings that the country’s systems are not geared to having large numbers of deportees landing at Piarco.

Gregory McGuire, though, has told Business Day that criminal returnees may be a much smaller issues than we think.

The university lecturer said contrary to popular belief, the Obama Administration is noted as one logging some of the largest numbers of deportees being returned to their respective countries. What this means is that there has been a steady stream of deportees coming back to TT over this period.

McGuire said those with criminal convictions returning to the country were more likely to be more concerned with re-starting their lives in a new environment rather than engaging in criminal activity. He believed the number that would turn to crime would be minimal and their contribution to current crime rates little more than a “small uptick”.

According to the First Citizens Investment Services Report, “After Trump’s victory, the world is left to wonder,” 12,840 undocumented Trinbagonians may be living in the US and it says the percentage of these likely to return home is “small”.

However, the economist said attention should probably be focused on young, degreed professionals and retirees, who may choose to leave a Trump America. “Working professionals may find it increasingly difficult to get work in the US. The environment may become hostile to them,” said McGuire.

According to him, they may be more likely to return to seek opportunities in TT and, as a result, bring to the fore issues of competition for limited jobs in an environment where unemployment is increasing, as shown by the latest CSO figures.

McGuire also sees an increased number of retirees returning.

The economist said there may be positive economic effects here.

He said retirees, now at the end of their work life, may be in a position to return with valuable foreign exchange, which they may invest in the economy.

This investment can take several forms, including the opening of businesses. They may also be returning with valuable skills they could teach locals.

A drastic reduction in remittances due to an influx of returnees will also not pose a problem to TT.

Unlike Caribbean colleagues Jamaica and Haiti for example, remittances make less than one per cent of TT’s GDP, according to McGuire. He said those who send remittances to their families in TT are likely constrained by their economic circumstances to continue to do so.

He said these people are likely to remain in the US.

The economist said this was also the case with unskilled (possibly illegal) labourers, who, if they have not attracted the attention of the authorities, may opt to continue to work in the US.

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