Win for PNM, wish victory for UNC

This was the position given in a Report On The Local Government Elections 2016 by H.H.B. and Associated Ltd. The report also showed division in terms of ethnicity and religion as to who should win the elections; a consensus that the existing local government system needs to be reformed; most voters being unaware of what that reform should involve; a feeling that burning national issues have not been addressed by any of the political parties contesting the elections and a general disinterest by the public in national politics.

These results are based on a national random telephone survey of 398 persons drawn from each of the 14 local government municipalities in Trinidad. The survey was conducted between November 24 and 25. The sample was derived from a larger panel which was recruited by face to face random sampling methods.

When asked which party they think would win the elections, 42 percent of respondents said the PNM, 36 percent said the UNC while 21 percent were unsure. Only one percent of respondents each believed the Movement for Social Justice (MSJ) and the Independent Liberal Party (ILP) would win the elections. Two percent of respondents thought other political parties in the race (such as the Congress of the People -COP and the National Solidarity Assembly - NSA) would be victorious on Monday.

The opinion varies by race and religion (which are highly correlated) as to who would win the elections.

The report said 56 percent of Afro Trinidadians would like to see a PNM win in their electoral areas as compared with ten percent of Indo Trinidadians who would like to see a PNM win.

With respect to religion, 67 percent of Hindus and 57 percent of Muslims would prefer to see a UNC win in their electoral areas. However 63 percent of Baptists, 44 percent of Roman Catholics and 37 percent of Anglicans would prefer to see a PNM win in their electoral areas.

The report said age and gender do not appear to influence voting preference.

With respect to voter preference, overall, 38 percent would like to see the UNC win in their areas while 30 percent would like to see a PNM win. The report said 28 percent of respondents were undecided.

The report tabulated voter preference in all 14 local government corporations but stressed, “it should be noted that given the very small sample sizes, this data cannot be used as a forecast of who will win the elections.” The tabulation with respect to voter preference showed the PNM winning the Port-of-Spain City, Diego Martin Regional, San Juan/ Laventille, Arima Borough and Point Fortin Borough Corporations ( for a total of five corporations).

However in this same table, the UNC retains the Chaguanas Borough, Princes Town Regional, Siparia Regional, Couva/Tabaquite/ Talparo, Penal/Debe Regional and Rio Claro/Mayaro Corporations while winning back the San Fernando City, Sangre Grande Regional and Tunapuna/Piarco Regional Corporations which it lost in 2013 to the PNM (for a total of nine corporations.) In 2013, the PNM (then in Opposition) won eight local government corporations while the UNC (as part of the then People’s Partnership government) won six corporations. In the 2010 Local Government Elections, the PP won 11 corporations while the PNM won three corporations.

The report said 69 percent of respondents reported they intended to vote while 23 percent said that they would not do so. The report said this seems very unlikely since historically turnout has been very much lower __ averaging around 30 percent for the last local government elections. HHB adjusted the voting intention figures by looking at the data on “interest in politics and current affairs”. That data shows that 57 percent were “somewhat” or “very” interested in politics and current affairs and 25 percent were not at all interested.

When an adjustment is made for for “interest in politics and current affairs” (somewhat arbitrarily) “we get a voting intention estimate of around 41 percent. The intention to vote is higher among Indo Trinidadians (77 percent) than among Afro Trinidadians (71 percent). Voter intention is also higher among Hindus (79 percent) and Muslims (71 percent) than among Christians (60 percent). Voting intention does not vary significantly by age, gender or education.

“Civic duty” was identified as the first declared intention to vote for 39 percent of respondents and the second intention was”for the betterment of my country”.The top four reasons for not voting were that “politicians do nothing for me” ( 15 percent); “my vote will not make a difference” (14 percent); “nothing is going to change regardless of who is in power” (13 percent) and “I only see politicians during election time” (12 percent).

The HHB report found that 80 percent of respondents believe the system of local government needs to be improved “quite a lot” or a “great deal.” The report said 15 percent of respondents believed that the current system of Local Government either “works extremely well” or can be fixed with only minor adjustments.

Regarding the PNM’s local government reform plans, 29 percent of respondents said they had heard either a “great deal” ( eight percent) or a “fair amount” (21 percent) about government’s plans for local government. However 41 percent of respondents said they had not heard very much and an additional 28 percent had heard nothing at all about Government’s plans.

In terms of support for the PNM’s local government reform, 46 percent of respondents either “strongly support” (20 percent) or tend to support (26 percent) Government’s plans for reforming local government.

HHB said this support exists, “in spite of the fact that 69 percent had heard little or nothing at all about Government’s plans.” The report said 12 percent of respondent “tend to” or “strongly” oppose Government’s plans while 42 percent are unsure.

When asked about national concerns, 73 percent of respondents believed things in TT are going “in the wrong direction” while 16 percent believed things “are going in the right direction and 12 percent are unsure.

This feeling that the country is going in the wrong direction is high in all of the municipalities in Trinidad.

The top three issues identified as being important in Trinidad are crime (90 percent), unemployment (52 percent) and rising prices (44 percent). The report found that only four percent of respondents identified corruption in government as being a major issue.