Cuba after Fidel Rapprochement or Retreat?

For the last 6 decades, whatever your thoughts on the revolutionary, Castro strode across the collective consciousness of four generations, his impact on geopolitics inarguable.

Opinions on his legacy to millions of Cubans are also bitterly divided, ranging from sadness and tributes at his passing to celebration in the streets of Miami by Cuban emigres.

He suffered major illness and had been close to death a decade ago.

Even though he defied expectations to live, visions of a Cuba without a Castro leading perhaps started occurring to Cubans for the first time. Such was the impact of the man.

In 1959, Castro managed the impossible. American business interests were entrenched in much of Latin America and the Caribbean but Castro ousted them from Cuba, nationalising all of their property.

The US instituted a trade embargo against the island, just 90 miles from its Florida coast, and was successful in getting many of its allies to follow.

But in the end, Cuba could rely on the Soviet Union, China and other nations with socialist sympathies.

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the pressure of globalisation saw Cuba having to reconsider its position and, as Fidel moved further into the background, his brother inched closer to the US.

The Obama administration lifted travel restrictions and there was talk of reconsideration of the trade embargo. The election of Donald Trump is likely to result in a rollback of the US position on these issues.

The First Citizens Investment Services report, After Trump’s victory, the World is Left to Wonder said improving economic and political relations could suffer.

Tuesday morning, two days after Castro’s death, CNN was reporting that Trump aides were already calling for a change in government in Havana.

Previous main partner, Russia, has moved to more democratic governance and looser control of its economy. Vladimir Putin appears to have a friendly relationship with the Trump White House. At home, Cuba was able to emerge as a leading medical centre, even as millions of its citizens lived in poverty. How would these citizens react to a world without Fidel Castro. Would they lobby to join the world or cling and perpetuate an old order, which, while bringing them benefits, denied possibilities. Is the Cuban diaspora, particularly the group based in Miami, going to become increasingly friendly to a motherland without Castro, or remain aloof in what may be the chilly diplomatic climate between the island and the US.

And what of Cuba’s Caribbean neighbours? Will we be increasingly welcoming of Cuba and will she look to strengthen her partnership with us? Or will Cuba remain a stranger locked away from us as we try to maintain good relations with the US? What position is Cuba going to take, rapprochement or retreat into self? The FCIS report projects that if Trump goes ahead with plans to reverse Obama’s overtures, Cuba’s position on the US may become “increasingly hostile”. The report said Cuba has already launched strategic exercises on the course of several days after the Trump victory to confront what its government has called “a range of enemy actions”.

The report also said Cuba may choose to deepen ties with China and other Western allies.

However, the effectiveness of this action could be limited, however, by what actions the US takes against these potential friends.

The report goes on to say that the post detente tourism boom Cuba experienced under Obama will “lose steam”. It also suggests strained relations between the US may make it difficult for Caribbean manufacturers to do business with the island. According to the report, the facilitation of trade with a new market of 11 million in Cuba may be affected.

Ultimately, as with everything concerning the Trump Administration, uncertainty abounds. Cuba, like the rest of the world, is in wait and see mode.