Uncertainty grips World Cup

KIMBERLEY, South Africa:  Kenya’s shock win over Sri Lanka has set the scene for a thrilling end to the preliminary phase of the World Cup, with five of seven Group B teams still in contention.

Just four points separate Kenya, Sri Lanka, West Indies, New Zealand and South Africa, with two matches each left to play and eight points available for each team. The pool is so tight that each of the five teams could potentially win the group — or miss out altogether. Only three teams go through to the next round. The permutations are endless. Teams can go through by winning one of their two remaining matches but can also miss out even if they win both if other results go against them. Bizarrely, it is even possible that a team could finish equal first on points and still miss out on a place in the Super Six if, as is possible, four teams finish level on points.

It is also possible that a team could finish third but carry more points through to the next stage than teams finishing ahead of them. Teams keep four points for wins over fellow-qualifiers and one point for wins over eliminated teams. The only thing that seems certain is that run-rates will probably be needed to split the teams. “We got the calculators out after the Kenya game but it’s still too early to work out yet,” New Zealand captain Stephen Fleming said. “There’s a lot to go yet and I think there might be a few more twists to come.”  While things have mostly gone according to script in the other half of the draw, Group B — supposedly the easier pool — has been full of surprises from the moment West Indies upset South Africa in the first game of the tournament.

South Africa, one of the cup favourites, seemed to be out of the running when they lost a second match to New Zealand. But West Indies then lost two certain points when their match against Bangladesh was rained off, while the New Zealanders gave up four points by forfeiting their match in Kenya because of security concerns. South Africa’s fate is now in their own hands again but they still need to win their final two matches against Canada and Sri Lanka to make the next round. Sri Lanka were cruising towards the Super Sixes before their shock loss to Kenya on Monday turned the group upside down.

They must win one of their remaining two games — against West Indies and South Africa. Kenya were never considered as contenders for the next stage but find themselves leading the group after the forfeit-victory over New Zealand and wins over Sri Lanka and Canada. They have Bangladesh and West Indies to play. West Indies’ moment of truth comes against Sri Lanka in Cape Town on Saturday. A win and they will probably top the group. A defeat and they they will almost certainly miss out. New Zealand have only lost one match, to Sri Lanka, but their refusal to fly to Kenya could prove dear. They have two ‘easy’ games against Bangladesh and Canada but could still miss out with two wins. “Like the other teams, all we can really do is look after our games,” Fleming said. “We have to win them and win them well to boost our run-rates but, apart from that, we’re just passengers.