Met man predicts wet Dry Season

According to experienced farmers, this January’s rainfall has made January 2005 the wettest in living memory. So far 172.9 mm of rain has fallen and the month still has 11 days to go. In January 2004 the rainfall totalled 38.1 mm. Steady rainfall has caused flooding and landslides in several parts of TT, severe damage to roads and houses, losses to farmers, a rise in vegetable prices and the delay in the start of the sugar cane crop. Acting Chief Meteorologist Marlon Noel yesterday said the “official” Dry Season has started, but TT is going through a “wetter than normal” period. He said, “We are being affected by a surface trough (areas of low pressure.)”

He said weather conditions were also being influenced by the cold air from North America which is causing the formation of stratified clouds. Noel said they could be seen over hills and mountains. Explaining why the Dry Season has not yet started, Noel referred to the absence of the “Azores High” (an area of high pressure that is semi-permanent) which contributes to dry conditions. Noel said it starts at 25-30 degrees north latitude and varies daily. It has not formed properly “and we do not have the effect that is normally associated with the Azores High to produce the Dry Season.” But Noel assured that there would be a Dry Season.  Noel said the Wet and Dry Seasons could vary. “Sometimes we can have a wet Wet Season or a dry Wet Season.”

The climatologist at the Met office has compiled a three-month rainfall forecast for Piarco which indicates a “wetter than normal Dry Season.”
However, Noel said the information compiled, has forecast that rainfall will be above the long-term average, calculated from statistics between 1961 and 1990. This period is an international standard used to determine the long-term mean. Next month has a long-term average of 43.3 mm, but the forecast is for 49.5 mm. The long-term average for March is 34.3 mm and the forecast is 36.1 mm; the long-term average for April is 51.1 mm, and forecast rainfall is 58.8 mm. Noel said these predictions were only a guide because external perimeters also impact on the rainfall patterns of TT.