Is TT a failing state?

However, Dr Tewarie in his original statement was at pains to emphasise that he did not consider this country to be a failed State, but a failing one. There is a substantive difference.

It is perfectly obvious that Trinidad and Tobago is not in the same situation as Ivory Coast, Gambia, Russia, or Haiti. But that is not the question. The question is whether present social indicators mean that we are heading towards failed-State status within the foreseeable future.

Recent events may well have persuaded fence-sitters to come down on Dr Tewarie’s side. In the past months, there have been 239 murders and two kidnappings. On Wednesday, three bodies were discovered in a forested area in Fyzabad; a URP worker was murdered; and kidnappers snatched Pennywise manager Dayne Paladee from outside his home.

Save for their compression into one week, these events are not now exceptional for our society. What would be exceptional is two days passing without any murders or a whole month without a kidnapping. But do present trends indicate that we are on the road to social collapse?

To answer this query, we must first identify what the various social trends are. The most obvious ones we have just highlighted — a rising murder rate and a now-established kidnapping industry. There are others — growing mistrust of the police in light of continual extra-judicial killings, plus officers’ sheer incompetence and simple bad manners. Education continues to inadequately meet the needs of the upcoming generation. The public health care system continues to be plagued by problems, so we now have to import professionals to prop the system up. The courts are still clogged, so justice is not swift save for the elites in the society. The poverty rate is sticking at 20 percent. And racial demagogues become, in slow degrees, more overt in their rhetoric of bigotry.

Against this, we can put some counter-indicators. The most significant one is that the economy is still robust. In terms of race, the demagogues are still failing to put the various ethnic groups at one another’s throats. In terms of politics, more citizens’ groups have started to be formed, as people realise that politics is too important to leave to politicians.

All these factors, and others, must be taken into account as we consider whether Trinidad and Tobago is a failing State or not. And it is very important that we tackle this question because, as the old saying goes, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

Those pundits who have taken delight in, as they believe, proving Dr Tewarie wrong have missed the larger issue.

If this country already were a failed State, no amount of hindsight 2020 vision would change matters. If it is not failing, then our problems are symptomatic, not fundamental, and can be handled by standard measures. If, however, the signs suggest social disintegration, then it is crucial to admit this, in order that basic reforms of our social arrangements can be undertaken now.