Landslide victory for PNM

But if elections were to be called now, the ruling PNM will sweep the polls winning a special majority because people don’t view the UNC as an alternative government in the making. Even supporters of the UNC are not confident that the UNC, as currently constituted or under Winston Dookeran’s leadership, can beat the PNM. However, the PNM will face a tough contest against a united opposition comprising individuals of integrity.

The latest survey was conducted by Vishnu Bisram to determine voter behaviour in the event of snap elections.

According to a release, the findings are based on interviews systematically conducted with 486 respondents.

Asked if elections were to be called now which party do they think would win, only a handful of respondents feel the UNC, as currently constituted, can pull off an upset victory. Almost every respondent, including most UNC supporters, says the PNM will win the next elections by a landslide.

UNC supporters say the party is very weak and in shambles and has virtually no chance of returning to political office unless Chairman Basdeo Panday unites with his former deputy Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj, reforms the party, and unites with other opposition forces. Asked if they feel Panday will reconcile with Maharaj and reform his party, a majority of UNC supporters, for the first time in four years, say yes; they are confident Panday will do the right thing this time around. The release further stated that a majority of the respondents feel the opposition forces should unite against the PNM. But while most UNC supporters endorse the idea, most PNM supporters are opposed to the coming together of the opposition forces. However, voters are not hopeful for the formation of a credible united opposition saying that unless the UNC is purged, other opposition figures will not want any dealings with the party.

The findings of the poll show Panday still enjoys significant hard core support and as such it would not be easy for Winston Dookeran and his Progressive allies to unseat Panday as de facto leader.

Many UNC supporters express a fear that if Panday were to exit the political scene now, the UNC will factionalise and disintegrate and they don’t think Dookeran is strong enough to hold the various UNC factions together. A majority of UNC supporters feel Panday should first end the infighting within the UNC and unite the opposition forces before exiting the political scene.

Asked if Panday should hand over the opposition leadership to Dookeran now, 60 percent of UNC supporters say no. Many PNM supporters say Panday should hand over the leadership to Dookeran but few indicate they will vote for him. Most respondents have a favourable image of Dookeran viewing him as a good technocrat but lacking the leadership skills of Panday.

UNC supporters say they want a stern, aggressive, combative personality like Panday who can take on Manning and the PNM.

Some people feel Dookeran is not ready for leadership and that Panday should provide leadership training to Dookeran. But those who support Dookeran’s leadership feel he will be a more trustworthy leader than Panday. Asked whom they would prefer as Prime Minister between Manning and Dookeran, Manning leads by a comfortable margin but nearly a third of the voters say they prefer someone else as PM.

Only a handful of Africans say they prefer Dookeran over Manning as contrasted with almost ten percent Indians who say they prefer Manning over Dookeran.

Asked if a Dookeran-led party can beat the PNM, a third of the respondents say yes. Only half of UNC supporters along with a few Africans, Mixed race, and the other minorities feel Dookeran can win the next elections.

According to the findings of the poll, the PNM enjoys a whopping 11 percent lead over the UNC in popular support — 45 percent to 34 percent. But the PNM’s support slips against a combined opposition.

The poll has a margin of error of five percent. The poll is projecting the PNM comfortably winning 25 seats and within striking distance of picking up four more seats regardless of whether Panday or current leader Winston Dookeran leads the UNC into the elections. However, the combined opposition under a credible leader has a fighting chance to unseat the PNM.

UNC supporters say they want an end to squabbling in the party. Asked if Panday-Maharaj-Dookeran should unite, almost every UNC supporter says yes but PNM supporters oppose unity in the UNC camp.

UNC supporters overwhelmingly endorse the initiative of deputy leader Jack Warner to end infighting and bring healing within the party and uniting it with the other opposition forces including Garvin Nicholas’ MDN which has a showing on the political radar. Some even feel Warner will make a good leader.