PNM leads 73 to 43 in local elections

According to the latest tracking poll conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Asssociation (NACTA), the PNM is leading the UNC 73 to 43 seats with ten seats too close to call in the July 14 local government elections. In terms of popular support, the PNM is leading the UNC-NAR alliance 52 percent to 39 percent.

The findings have a five percent margin of error. The poll also shows the PNM has consolidated its hold over the seven councils it currently controls while the UNC has lost voter support in its traditional base but will retain control of local governments in its natural moorings in the rural heartland. NACTA is a New York-based research and polling group with no affiliation with any political party. The group has been conducting polls in Trinidad since the November 1995 elections and in Guyana since 1990; in addition, NACTA conducted polls in India and New York and has developed a reputation for being on target in all of its pre-election surveys and is confident of its prediction for the upcoming Trinidad elections. The latest poll was conducted in mid-June to find out opinion on issues relating to the local government elections as well as to determine popular support for the political parties and the outcome of the elections in several close races. NACTA interviewed 1,276 voters to yield a demographically representative sample of the voting population. Voters were polled randomly to make the sample as representative as possible of varied age, class, occupational and religious categories as well as of ethnicity and educational levels in the population. NACTA used the data to project the outcome of several close or marginal seats currently held by the UNC.

The survey was coordinated by Vishnu Bisram, a pollster and newspaper columnist in New York. The poll is showing the PNM leading in nine local governments while the UNC is leading in four local governments (Penal, Couva, Chaguanas, and Princes Town); the Rio Claro/Mayaro municipality is a tie. In Rio Claro/Mayaro, the two parties are projected to win two seats each and two seats are too close to call. Voter turnout will determine the winner in the two close seats in Rio Claro as well as in eight other marginal seats in other areas held by the UNC. If PNM voter turnout is higher than UNC voter turnout and or if there is a large Indian crossover from the UNC to the PNM as the poll is showing, then the PNM could pick up all ten seats and control ten local bodies and tie another. The PNM has the advantage in the ten close seats because of the effects of incumbency; the party is financing projects that will allow it to wrest most of these seats as well as two national parliamentary seats from the UNC and to retain office for a long time into the future as long as the UNC remains the opposition. The poll is projecting the PNM wresting St Joseph and San Juan/Barataria from the UNC without strategically targetted housing policies. Fyzabad and Pointe-a-Pierre could also be threatened in four years because the PNM has been picking up support from Indians who are fed up with the UNC leadership and the tainted MPs surrounding him.

The poll has found voter turnout among Indians will be lower than Africans because most Indians are disenchanted with the leadership of the UNC; even the UNC grass roots in Caroni, Couva, Penal, Debe, Rio Claro and Siparia have lost faith in their party and a majority of them will not vote with a significant number voting PNM to punish the UNC leadership. Many said the UNC betrayed them when it was in office and are not willing to forgive Mr Panday for neglecting them and his misjudgments in office.  Some 12 percent of  Indians have indicated they will vote for the PNM because of jobs being provided to them by the PNM or service the PNM is rendering in their communities.  Many Indian communities in South and Central and in Rio Claro pointed out that they were neglected by the former UNC government whereas the PNM has been making an attempt to attend to their needs. Several Indians are also grateful to the PNM for employing them through CEPEP whereas under the UNC government they were ignored and left to fend for themselves.

UNC supporters said the only way their party can save face and begin to rebuild is if its leader and the gang surrounding him exit the political scene and the party is thorougly purged. According to the survey, nine UNC MPs, including its leader, have extremely high disapproval rating in their own constituencies and are even more disliked nationally. Only Winston Dookeran, Kelvin Ramnath, Gillian Lucky, Roodal Moonilal, Fuad Khan, Gerald Yetming and Hamza Rafeek remain in good standing among UNC supporters. Voters (including middle class Africans and Mixed races) also indicated they are not happy with the PNM’s performance and its dalliance with criminal elements. But more people trust the PNM than the UNC viewing the latter as too corrupt and confirming the UNC can never return to government. The PNM will come out of the elections weakened by a poor voter turnout of its base but strengthened by the confidence shown in it by Indians who are turning to the party because of their rejection of the UNC’s leadership.  To summarise, the survey is showing the UNC will be humiliated at the polls with the PNM picking up five seats from the UNC and projected to pick up an additional seven seats to give the party a minimum of eighty seats.