For example, Dr Bhoe Tewarie, an Opposition MP, wants to know when the money taken out of the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) will be repaid. Does he not know how and when the HSF is topped up as stated in law and that such depends on the excess earnings of the energy sector over the demands of the Budget? Another MP is concerned about the drop in reserves. Does he not know that the reserves are what we draw down when the foreign exchange income drops, to satisfy the reducing demands of the onshore sector, care being taken to ensure that the economy contracts, causing a reduction in demand for foreign exchange, encouraged by a strategic reduction in government spending? It is worth noting that a drawdown of the HSF also increases the reserves since US dollars in the HSF have not been used to print associated TT dollars.
Yet another is concerned about the resulting decreases in GDP as the recession progresses.
Another past senator, supported by a current unionist now an MP, is very concerned about the loss of jobs, in this current state of economic full employment, and is putting this down to the ruthlessness of the PNM.
It must be common knowledge that in the onshore economy the provision of jobs depends on the earnings, the rents provided by the energy sector (even for those jobs provided by the Government).
When these earnings drop, as at present, the fuel that drives the onshore economy dries up and the economy contracts, resulting in job losses (something which government spending, borrowings, sale of assets, use of the HSF and the overdraft are designed to slow).
Another MP is concerned about the increase in debt, now at some 60 percent of GDP, clearly ignorant of, say, Japan’s over 100 percent of GDP debt when that country was fighting its recession.
Another is concerned about the lack of investment it diversification of the economy. There are two aspects of this: First is that diversification based on innovation, which is a long-term effort, is the ongoing task of the Economic Development Advisory Board.
The second is to try to get foreign investment into the country with the accompanying incentive costs to so do; for example, financial services, back-office operations, telemarketing and even tourism.
This last set seems to be what the various ministries are about: Tamana Park, Sandals, the financial centre.
Another is the attempt to import gas from Venezuela to keep Pt Lisas running even though prices are low.
Another complained that past governments did not encourage foreign investment to go drilling upstream. The PNM government, before the current one, started such discussions but they were not brought to a conclusion since the incentives asked for were onerous as our fields were aged and the competition in other parts of the world for investments is severe.
However, the PP government gave in and allowed, for example, the complete write-off against taxes of any capital expenditure in the related year; we got some drilling started but no income.
Maybe, as Dr Terrence Farrell says, the public must be concerned about the state of the economy, must comment, but please leave the complex analysis to the economists.
Victor Darceuil St James, PoS