Road fatality rate passes 2020 average

TRINIDAD and Tobago’s economy is not the only thing on a growth path. Road fatalities are also increasing because of the number of vehicles on the roads. Based on the World Bank’s regional forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), Trinidad and Tobago is said to be experiencing an average annual growth in traffic fatalities for the 21st century, so far, of 7.5 percent, three times the LAC’s regional forecast average of 2.5 percent per year to 2020.

There is the possibility of a further increase, since the ratio of vehicles to persons is increasing daily. It is therefore recommended that government move very quickly to stem the trend and to subordinate mobility to safety as a national policy. The startling information is contained in a paper by Raymond Charles, Department Head of Civil and Environmental Engineering at UWI, St Augustine, which was compiled on behalf of the Board of Engineering of TT. The paper has not yet been approved by the Board. The paper was requested because of the frequency of traffic accidents. There have already been 111 road deaths from 97 fatal accidents on the roads in 2004.

In his paper, Charles said based on “Global Burden of Disease” published in 1996 by Murray and Lopez, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has predicted that by 2020, “traffic fatalities will be the sixth leading cause of death worldwide, and the second leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years lost in developing countries.” Charles added that assuming the current road transport paradigm is sustained, traffic fatality is expected to be the third most likely cause of death overall for developing countries, surpassed only by heart disease and major depression. That suggestion is supported by the World Bank and the Transport Research Laboratory of UK, which have forecast that by 2020, there will be around “1.3 billion vehicles worldwide and some 1.2 million road fatalities, representing a 66 percent increase from the year 2000.”

The paper said data published by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) showed that, in 1975, there were two vehicles to every 23 persons. That ratio significantly increased by 1990 to one vehicle to every six persons and in 2002 it was two vehicles to every seven persons. Charles said the rate of increase was “noticeably ahead of many other developing countries, and even a few higher income countries.” He said there were 135 fatalities in 1990, and by 2002 the number of fatalities increased by 28 to 163. The paper said the bulk of the fatalities are expected to come from developing countries which would have around 1.1 million fatalities by 2020 if no changes in existing road safety policies are effected, while the developed/higher income countries would largely experience a 27 percent reduction to approximately 80,000 fatalities.

Charles said the 2020 forecast was a “livid propagation of past trends.” To demonstrate his point, he said between 1975 and 1998, China had a 243 percent increase in fatality rate, Malaysia 44.3 percent, while the USA had a reduction of 27 percent, France 43 percent and Canada 63 percent in fatalities. Between 1990 and 1999, this country had an increase of 31.1 percent. Charles said the trend where life in the developing world is at significant risk on the roads is expected to increase over the next 15 to 20 years if current policies and programmes remain in place.

Charles said in the 1980s when there was a Cabinet appointed National Road Safety Committee (NRSC) in place, road fatalities dropped from 220 in 1985 to 127 in 1992, but the NRSC was dissolved in 1992/1993. The paper said the Board of Engineering is recommending that a “sustainable, comprehensive and structured approach to road safety must be adopted now, and it must be fuelled by government’s will, commitment and effective management. It also suggests that government should make the best use of digital and Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) technologies and develop a National ITS Architecture.