NACTA predicts big election win for PNM

THE MOST recent survey conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) shows that if an election were to be held now the incumbent PNM would humiliate the opposition UNC easily winning a two-thirds majority of seats based on the proposed expansion of Parliament. However,  the poll shows that the emergence of a strong, credible multi-racial opposition would put a dent into gains being made by the PNM. The NACTA poll, which was concluded last month, revealed widespread disenchantment with the leadership of both the PNM and UNC with many respondents calling for new blood and the formation of a new multi-racial political party.  However, when asked how they will vote if they have to choose between the PNM and UNC, the PNM is preferred over the UNC 49 percent to 40 percent. A large number of voters from both major races indicated they will not vote and have not been used for the calculation of the findings. More UNC than PNM supporters indicated that they will stay away from the ballot boxes.

However, respondents who said they will not vote indicated a willingness to vote for a new party that is modelled after the NAR of 1986. Many Africans say they are unhappy with the PNM government’s performance, especially its handling of crime and the economy, but will vote for the party because it is the lesser of the evils. Similarly, a significant number of lower-income Indians who voted UNC last election said they will vote PNM in another election because they said they have received more benefits (CEPEP and URP jobs) under the PNM than under the UNC government. But several of the Indians who voted for the PNM in the last election to protest against perceived UNC corruption said they will not vote because they feel the PNM has not distinguished itself from the UNC. Very few respondents have faith in the UNC returning to government and they believe the situation will only get worse for the UNC. Asked if they think the UNC can return to government, only nine percent said yes.  An overwhelming number of UNC supporters don’t have confidence in their party making a comeback in office.

Using the findings of this latest poll and the NACTA poll of last June (1105 respondents) to project the outcome of an election, the UNC’s hold on St Joseph, San Juan Barataria, Fyzabad, and Pointe-a-Pierre are endangered giving the PNM a 24 to 12 victory under the current Parliament size. But with the proposed new political boundaries of the enlarged 41 seat Parliament, the PNM lead expands to 27-12 two seats a toss up. With regards to the new marginal seats, the PNM is slightly ahead in Barataria, Mayaro and Pointe-a-Pierre and have solid leads in Princes Town South, Chaguanas East, Tunapuna, St Joseph, and San Fernando West. Fyabad and Toco/Manzanilla are too close to call. But in some of these seats, the PNM  has not crossed the magical 50 percent threshold to guarantee the seat and as such it is possible for the UNC stave off defeats. However, under either parliamentary arrangement, the PNM is projected to pick up seats and consolidate its rule in Trinidad and Tobago for a long time to come. But support for the PNM is soft and if a strong opposition emerges, all the PNM gains could be wiped out.