No clear favourites to replace John Paul II

VATICAN CITY: The intense guessing game over who will be the next pope has only one certainty — the Cardinals must decide whether to follow John Paul II with another non-Italian or hand the papacy back to its traditional caretakers. The Polish-born John Paul was the first pope from outside Italy in 455 years. He brought a new vitality to the Vatican and challenged parochial attitudes across the church. One view holds that the papal electors will want to maintain the spirit by recognising the Roman Catholic centres of gravity outside Europe, led by Latin America and Africa.

Another theory suggests that the Italians will be pressing to reclaim the papacy after John Paul’s 26-year reign — the third-longest in history. The 117 cardinals begin their secret conclave later this month and there is no clear favourite in the running to replace the late Pontiff. But names often mentioned as “papabile” — the Italian word for possible papal candidates — include Cardinal Francis Arinze, a Vatican-based Nigerian and Brazilian Cardinal Claudio Hummes. Arinze, 72, converted to Roman Catholicism as a child and shares some of John Paul’s conservative views on contraception and family issues. If elected, he would be the first black pope of modern times.

Hummes, 70, is Archbishop of Sao Paolo, Brazil and urges more attention to fighting poverty and the effects of a globalised economy. His supporters note that Brazil’s role as a Latin American political and economic heavyweight could help the Vatican counter the popularity of emerging evangelical churches in the region. John Paul’s papacy was so long, some Vatican watchers suggest the conclave could seek an older “transitional” pope that may not seek to put a strong personal stamp on the papacy. Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, a German who heads the powerful Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, is the leading name in this scenario. Ratzinger, who will turn 78 before the conclave, was a close confidant of the late Pope and is favoured by those who want to preserve John Paul’s conservative views.

Europe has the biggest bloc with 58 papal electors — cardinals under 80 years old. Italy alone has 20. Latin America has 21 and Africa brings 11. The United States also has 11 cardinals and could sway the voting if they remain united. An American pope, however, is considered a virtual impossibility because the Vatican would avoid any such deep and complicated association with the world’s sole superpower. But any other prediction is on shaky ground. Finally at rest after years of a debilitating disease, Pope John Paul II’s body lay in state Sunday in the frescoed Apostolic Palace as the world mourned his passing and the Vatican prepared for the ritual-filled funeral and conclave that will elect his successor. An estimated 100,000 people turned out for a morning mass.

“Today, while we weep for the departure of the Pope who left us, we open our hearts to the vision of our eternal destiny,” Cardinal Angelo Sodano, the Vatican’s No 2 official, said in his homily. Bells tolled and pilgrims wept in remembrance of the Polish-born Pope, who reigned for longer than all but two of his predecessors and was credited with helping bring down communism in Europe and spreading a message of peace around the world. John Paul was dressed in crimson vestments and white bishop’s miter on his head. His crossed hands clutched a rosary, and his pastoral staff was tucked under his left arm.