We must prepare for the big one

"It’s just like crossing the street — you can’t close your eyes and step out into the street and think nothing bad will happen, you have to look left and right," said Joan Latchman, seismologist at the Seismic Research Unit, UWI, St Augustine campus.

Latchman believes that an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0, like the one that caused the tsunami which rocked Asia in December resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths, can occur in Trinidad and Tobago. And the more recent earthquake in Sumatra has contributed to the debate on whether earthquakes of such a magnitude can occur in other parts of the world, including the Caribbean.

Latchman was quite frank in her response: "Yes, the threat of an earthquake here is a reality." How so? She continued: "We are in a seismically active area."

She drew attention to the earthquake of 1843 which occurred between Guadeloupe and Antigua, and although there were no instrumental data to determine the magnitude of the earthquake, the effects of the damage suggested a magnitude of 8.0.

She said that an earthquake in Trinidad could happen at any time, and our response should not be one of nonchalance, indifference or panic, but preparedness. She suggested introducing earthquake drills in schools. "We have to address it. It is not seasonal, it is something we have to be prepared for in an ongoing way. We need to institute drills in school and at home. Always have food supplies. We need to be aware — the dos and don’ts of what to do during and after an earthquake, so that ‘when’ and not ‘if’ something like this happens, we would be disciplined and everything would kick in."

She pointed to the earthquake of 1766 which contributed to the relocation of Trinidad’s capital from St Joseph to Port-of-Spain, and a series of other earthquakes which occurred in Trinidad in 1954, 1988 and 1997 which averaged 6.1 on the Richter Scale.

Latchman has been studying the pattern of earthquakes in the Caribbean for several years. Soon after obtaining her A’ Levels in Sciences at St George’s College in Barataria, she landed the job of technician at the Seismic Research Unit.

Latchman comes from humble beginnings, where she grew up in St Augustine. Although Trinidadian, her accent is a mixture of tongues as her mother is Barbadian and father, Vincentian.

However, her job afforded her the opportunity to pursue a BSc in Mathematics and Computer Studies. Later, she pursued a Masters degree in Seismology studying the 1982 Tobago earthquakes. She is currently finishing her PhD in Seismology, placing emphasis on the Tobago earthquake of 1997.

The Seismic Unit was originally set up to monitor volcanic activity, but in recent times it has expanded to include earthquakes. Over the years, the unit has been able to forecast an earthquake and make "good estimates" of the magnitude of the earthquake. The earthquake of 1982 was forecasted three days before, and the one in 1997 was forecasted seven days prior. Latchman described her current studies as "exciting" as she has stumbled upon some extraordinary findings which, she said, would be revealed in due time.