Urgent need to diversify economy

Subsequently, the price recovered and so did our economy.

In 2015 our economy again fell down the slippery economic slope.

This will keep repeating itself unless we change this situation.

And even though 70 percent of our revenue now comes from gas instead of oil, gas prices are interwoven with oil prices, so it’s same result.

However, we have two additional threats on the horizon.

In the short-term, despite OPEC’s production cutbacks, the US shale oil producers have become more cost efficient and once the oil price crosses US$50 a barrel, then more “frackers” will jump back into production, helping to pull prices back down.

I would therefore postulate that the US frackers are our new glass ceiling.

But an even more ominous threat is solar and other alternative forms of energy. In fact, given collapsing prices of solar energy, it is estimated that by 2039, gas prices will no longer be competitive with alternative energy prices and gas will become a basket case, similar to what is happening with coal.

So given this unavoidable trajectory, what do we do? We have to diversify our economy. We can no longer afford to be a one-leg energy-dependent economy.

We need at least three additional legs, so if any leg is in trouble we have other sources of revenue.

The first additional leg we should focus on is tourism.

The Prime Minister needs to take the Sandals hotels (two) under his wing — with weekly updates — to ensure these projects hit the ground as soon as possible.

This will create 2,000 additional jobs in the construction sector, and 2,000 permanent jobs once the hotels are up and running.

The impact will be higher employment, higher income tax and VAT payments to Government, increase in demand for agricultural produce to supply hotel guests.

There will be many more ripple effects.

Second leg should be two ship repair facilities — in La Brea and Port of Spain.

Either one could generate revenue of US$2 billion a year, with thousands employed, income tax payments to Government etc. Again, because these projects are ready to go, they should also be taken under the PM’s wing.

The third leg should be agriculture.

The agricultural behemoth transforming the US landscape is marijuana.

First thing we should do is have a referendum on whether we should go down this road.

Because of our rich soil and proximity to the US, we can get US investors, as happened in Jamaica recently, where they were willing to invest US$100 million for the planting of marijuana and export to the US.

These crops would then be used as inputs for the medical marijuana sector.

This would have huge export potential, generation of US currency, and huge employment, plus reduction in crime once marijuana is legalised — less revenue to crime gangs.

Diversifying a country’s economy is a process.

It takes leadership, focus, and commitment. Other than the short-term projects — Sandals and ship repair facilities — we have to set up a serious diversification board with people such as the owners of SM Jaleel, Charles Candy, Sacha Cosmetics, Bermudez etc — people who have real-life experiences and who can shorten the learning curve.

Given how desperate our current business and economic climate is, does the PM think we can continue to limp along with our current ineffective policies to transform our economy?