Flies galore in city streets

THE EDITOR: This is an open letter to the Port-of-Spain City Corporation and more particularly Mr Mayor. I don’t know how often or if you walk the streets of Port-of-Spain and environs and observe certain things, or if you just speed away in your air conditioned vehicles to the west. But I have certainly observed that a lot of flies have infiltrated the streets. This is very obvious after the garbage collectors pick up the rubbish from the streets after the vagrants have gone through all of it. The results are that swarms of flies hovering the streets are filtering into people’s houses. Couldn’t there be some mechanism in place to have these areas/streets cleaned with some liquid after the garbage is removed?

Are the Health Inspectors and those persons who drive around in the Corporation’s vehicles wearing blinkers? Mr Mayor, why is it that you and the aldermen wait until you reach crisis before something is done? Look at the street vendors in Port-of-Spain for instance. Mr Mayor I beg of you to put some mechanism in place to eradicate if not all but the majority of those flies flying around in the streets. Aren’t those persons in the Insect Vector division equipped enough to put in place some collection times etc. Remember we are striving to be a first world country by 2020.

H  BERCHLOW
Port-of-Spain

Strange Fruit

A friend of mine who frequently brings me mangoes and other treats turned up the other day with a fruit I had never seen before. Its colour was yellow and it looked like a small ripe guava. It could have been a large hog plum. It might have even been a yellow peewaw. It also bore a strong resemblance to the foreign apricot. It was none of the above. In fact, he informed me, it was a “penny-piece”. I had neither heard the name nor seen the fruit before which surprised me because in my youth I had eaten my fill of “gru gru boeuf”, “fat pork”, “padu”, “five fingers”, “balata”, “damson” and “primrose” to mention a few of the now almost extinct home-grown produce that so delighted earlier generations. Was I even spelling their names correctly? How then had I never come across the fruit with the strange sounding name of “penny-piece”? “Try it,” he urged. I held the yellow fruit with its soft smooth feel in my hands, and never one to resist a challenge broke it in two. In the centre was a seed embedded in flesh the colour and consistency of butter. I took a bite and paused. It was neither sweet nor sour and the only words I could think of to describe the taste was dry, clawing, clinging to the roof of my mouth in a way I did not like at all. Since I had no idea whether the fruit had been born of a tall tree, a short tree or even on a vine overrun by stinging nettle and even wild bees, how could I tell this kind friend that I didn’t like it? But he read my expression well and I confessed as gently as I could that the penny-piece was not for me and indeed mused that no  wonder it had all but disappeared from the scene.

Who would grow this fruit with the strange taste and even stranger name? What would today’s young people, reared on a lifelong diet of foreign apples and grapes, make of the penny-piece? In the first place what do they know of the word “penny” other than that there was once a Miss Universe of that name? The “penny,” that I remember was a brassy coin with the image of the British Queen’s face, which has long since passed from the realm, at least for us. On one side of the coin was the face of the King/Queen and the other side was the image of Brittania with the Latin motto: “Dei Gratia Brittanica Omnia Fidei Defendor India Imperator” or “by the grace of God King of all Britain, defender of the faith Emperor of India.” In 1949 the title Emperor of India was removed due to Indian independence. The old penny was worth two cents, but indeed even the British have replaced that old penny with the “new pence,” still worth only two cents. But how did this fruit which looks pretty appealing even though of nondescript flavour come by the name of penny-piece? Did it cost a penny for one? Not likely, given the free way we helped ourselves to fruit which grew wild and everywhere in the past? Does anyone know? Would anyone care to enlighten me?

The Perfect Storm


Caribbean tourism is caught in the perfect storm. Tourism, the lifeblood of many Caribbean economies, continues to show strong resilience despite the many challenges that the vulnerable industry has been forced to endure as a result of a number of unprecedented and spiralling events over the last two years. London-based World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC)  Jean-Claude Baumgarten said its overall optimistic assumptions for the tourism industry seems to be panning out. “Which means, we’re looking at a difficult 2003, as opposed to a disastrous 2003 for most countries. It seems strange to be happy treading water, but it could have been much worse.” . Long term, the WTTC is confident that the resiliency of Travel & Tourism will bounce back. Top line forecasts for the next ten years show a 4.6 per cent annualised real growth of demand; 3.6 per cent real growth in Gross Domestic Product and a 2.2 per cent growth in employment. Likening the current global environment to a “Perfect Storm” – a combination of terrorism, consumer wariness and bad economy, war impact and SARS – “ we’re being hit by waves of enormous size and they are coming from every direction.”

Baumgarten added, “ Just like the perfect storm in the North Atlantic that took its toll, claimed its victims and created its heroes, this perfect storm will do the same. Some of our colleagues have closed their doors and some will be stronger for having survived. But just like the real perfect storm, this one too will blow itself out.”  With the devastating 9/11 terrorist events in the United States, Gulf War 11 and SARS, the fall-out in the tourism industry in the Caribbean has been catastrophic to say the least; resulting in the closure of guest houses and hotels and the spin-off effects these have had on employment, both direct and indirect and on the general economy. But the worst may yet be over. The Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) in its latest outlook for 2003 is optimistic that Caribbean tourism now appears to be past the lowest point of the downswing and showing signs of recovery. “ In short, there are clear possibilities for further growth in the near term. The international travel industry has once again demonstrated its resilience and the Caribbean tourism sector appears set for continued recovery in 2003,” according to the CTO. The weakened US dollar has also made the region’s tourist prices more attractive for Europeans and Canadians, while making trans-Atlantic travel more expensive for Americans and encouraging more of our North American neighbours to consider the Caribbean as an alternative destination. According to the CTO’s figures, tourist arrivals to Caribbean destinations during winter 2003 from January-April increased by an estimated seven per cent over winter 2002.

The Caribbean registered an overall increase of around seven per cent in arrivals from the United States while arrivals from Canada increased by an estimated 21 per cent. The European market is also showing signs of recovery from dramatic declines with arrivals registering overall growth of six per cent during the first three months of this year. Cruise passenger visits during winter 2003 increased by an estimated five per cent. The highest increases continue to be recorded among destinations in the Western Caribbean due to the relocation of cruise ships back to the US due to the 9/11 attacks.  The trend is also reflected in the sharp increases recorded by the new cruise destinations of Turks & Caicos and Belize. Tom Murray, Americas Vice President of InterContinental Hotels said the Caribbean region is well positioned to take advantage of the inevitable upturn in the travel and tourism market. Speaking at the recent annual Caribbean Hotel Industry Conference (CHIC) in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, Murray said the region’s proximity to its major inbound market, the United States, its viability as a long-haul destination for European customers, the safety factor and politically stable governments will each contribute to the Caribbean recovery. “But perhaps the best thing the Caribbean has going for it, is the opportunity to brand this region as a whole,” he said, explaining that brands, branded companies and branded destinations will be well-positioned to flourish when the tourism industry rebounds.

The Caribbean Hotel Association Charitable Trust (CHACT) has launched a US$16 million Life Needs the Caribbean brand campaign to market and promote the Caribbean as a single destination. Murray said by accentuating the positive characteristics of the region, understanding the importance of branding, and keeping the focus on guests, “we can ride out any storm … and emerge more successful than ever when the skies do, eventually, clear up.” CTO’s Secretary General Jean Holder is already planning ahead for the new dawning of the Caribbean tourism industry by promoting Sports Tourism as a new niche market in diversifying the traditional product of sun, sea and sand. Sports Travel Magazine estimated in 1998 that sports-related travel and tourism market is worth US$118.3 billion. Closer to home, a CTO survey of departing visitors after a Test Match in Barbados in the 1998 West Indies/England Cricket series, showed some outstanding economic results. During the week immediately after the game some 8,300 or 15 per cent of departing visitors in the survey, indicated that they had come to Barbados for cricket. With an average stay of 10 days, these visits translated into US$24 million to the Barbadian economy. “ The tourism industry has therefore been challenged to provide year round jobs for its employees and a more even stream of revenue. This means that, given the growing dependence on tourism as an economic sector, empty hotels after May, financial droughts in September and October and lay-offs of staff for significant periods, are no longer acceptable,” said Holder. He said the Caribbean must understand the “incredible opportunities and challenges” posed to the Caribbean when it hosts the 2007 World Cup Cricket Series in which sixteen teams from around the world will be engaged in competition for 40 days.

Bullseye

It’s a deal RBTT is still gloating over. RBTT Merchant, with its recent capital market issue of US$104 million, a Senior Secured Note, to Empresa Generadora de Electricidad Haina, SA (EGE Haina), has set in motion a financial ripple. Not only has it firmly entrenched the bank in the Spanish-speaking Caribbean, it has also raised its regional profile. Haina is one of the largest electricity-generating companies in the Dominican Republic(DR). While this is not the largest transaction facilitated by the Merchant Bank, it was a major milestone for them in terms of getting into the lucrative Spanish-speaking Caribbean, a region aggressively being sought by local banks. Acting as trustee, issuing agent, registrar and payment agent for the transaction was JPMorgan Chase Bank, London. Mark Singh, managing director of RBTT Merchant, said this transaction with Haina was long in the making. It  took one year and three months to finalise. The US$104 million was provided to Haina for the acquisition of additional share holding rights in another DR power company, Itabo, to repay a debt to Nordbanken AB (Nordea Loan) and to purchase a badge to increase the company’s power-generating capacity. “We provided them with funds primarily to finance a badge with generators to increase power to the Dominican Republic,” Singh said in an interview. The US$30 million of the Senior Secured Note was used to increase their ownership in Itabo, one of the subsidiaries they were interested in acquiring, Singh noted.

Haina had for a long time, been interested in acquiring full ownership of Itabo, but faced some financial obstacles. The company ended up shelving its plans to buy out Itabo until liquidity improved in the DR financial market. Also, this purchase of Itabo was originally scheduled to take place last year, but was halted when all parties involved could not come to an agreement. Itabo is owned 50% by the government and 50% by US company El Paso and Chilean company AES Gener. The Senior Secured Note for US$104 million was initially supposed to be the first stage of transactions with a syndicated loan and a second senior secured note to follow, bringing the total financial deal to US$250 million. If Haina indeed acquires Itabo, a deal that was supposed to cost Haina US$250 million, it will become the largest power company in the DR with 600MW capacity. This is approximately 50 per cent of the total generation capacity within the Dominican Republic. But, Singh said while the Merchant Bank is geared to have a US$65 million line of credit, to be done in the DR, Haina has halted all transactions until financial conditions improve there. “As of now, this is the only transaction for Haina,” said Singh. The Haina deal has raised the stakes in the local banking sector.  Republic Bank, a local competitor, has already pitched itself as the trade facilitator in Cuba and for local manufacturers to gain a foothold there.

Republic has also recently increased its lending portfolio in the Dominican Republic by extending lines of credit to companies operating there. Investments have been out on hold by  the DR government until negotiations are completed for a loan package with the International Monetary Fund, said a recent newspaper report in DR.  Although this uncertainty did not affect interest rates in the DR, it has restricted liquidity, the paper said. RBTT Merchant looked to a number of local financiers to raise the money for Haina, said Singh. Investors included Clico Investment, Unit Trust Corporation, Ansa Finance and Merchant, InterCommer-cial Bank, RBTT Trust Company and the National Insurance Company of Jamaica. The Senior Secured Note, due in 2010 at an interest rate of 10 per cent, when used to purchase stake in Itabo, will give Haina control of 35 per cent of the power generation capacity in the Dominican Republic. Currently, the power company commands 22 per cent. As a result, the Haina deal is a massive notch in RBTT Merchant’s financial belt. But the bank is already well known in the region for providing funding to governments, said Singh. He added that RBTT Merchant has done bond issues and provided loans to almost every single government within the English-speaking Caribbean. “We have done bond issue for Grenada, St Lucia, Antigua, Dominica, Trinidad and Tobago and St Vincent. We have provided bonds to the government of almost every single island,” said Singh.


The Merchant bank has recently provided funding for power generation companies, also, within the region. Singh said the largest US dollar transaction to date for the Bank was the issue of US$130 million to the Jamaican Public Service Company (JPSCo), the Jamaican equivalent to TTEC. Funding for several other power companies have been done in St Lucia and Curacao. Other than power, the bank has done some telecommunication financing for the cellular company in Jamaica, Digicell. So we have a long list,” said Singh. Ordinarily, when a company is looking to borrow a large amount of money, they usually talk with several banks that they have a close relationship with and those with a reputation to deliver. The Haina transaction was no different, said Singh.  Along with RBTT Merchant, Haina also had discussions with Citibank, Miami and ScotiaBank, Canada. They also held talks with their domestic bankers. Singh is of the view that  RBTT Merchant was the only local financial institution capable of handling this type of transaction. He said the Bank has built a sound reputation over the last few years and is well known in the region as trustworthy financiers. Singh feels local banks don’t have the capacity to venture into the realm of big financing regionally. He was asked about international banks trying to get into the Caribbean. “In the Caribbean region, there is a little bit of uncertainty by these large banks to get involved in these types of transactions.  “They don’t know the region well enough so we have to step in and help out.” The Merchant Bank is now working on a TT$1.4 billion deal with the TT government:  TT$740m will be raised by RBTT Merchant to assist the Government with Caroni 1975 Ltd, and TT$500m will be raised for the refinancing of government obligations.

BWIA: In a sea of red

“BWIA is flying in the face of the international airline industry by showing a profit in a sea of red,” Bourse Securities said after the posting of the September 2001 BWIA figures. The company’s recommendation was to buy. This statement did not continue to hold at the end of December 2001 and became even more irrelevant at the end of 2002.  As at December 2002, the company  reported a LPS — Loss Per Share of US$0.74 down from a LPS of US$0.03 in 2001. This reflects a loss of US$34.4M in 2002, a decline from the 2001 loss of US$0.7M.   The loss from ordinary operations of US$11M increased because of :

1) A one time write down in aircraft assets — US$14.3M
2) Provision for separation costs — US8.2M — for the “adoption of the New Business Model that will position BWIA on a lower cost basis.” Forced low rates that were necessary to stay competitive on the market “constrained the availability of resources to do battle for market share in the shrinking market pie.” While the Maintenance and Engineering areas boast an “average dispatch reliability of greater than 98.76 percent across fleet types,” this department returned aircraft to the lessors. In the Chairman’s (L Duprey) view, the “management at BWIA performed to a higher level than several other larger airlines in this hostile environment.”  His sentiments are supported by the then CEO Conrad Alleong who reminds us that “in 2002, practically all carriers suffered historic losses with the total industry losing US$23 billion for 2001 and 2002, that is, wiping out all the profits produced by the industry since 1945. BWIA found itself in this same financial crunch and had to adopt the same strategy of cost reduction for survival.” BWIA’s objective is to reduce its operating costs to US$0.08 cents in terms of cost per available seat mile (cost/ASM). This would allow the airline to be extremely competitive as the benchmark set by the low cost star “Jet Blue” is US$0.073 cents /ASM. The new policies for reduction will only be successful by the diligence and commitment of the staff, union  and management to ensure that all their actions and decisions are in tandem with these goals. Financial considerations apart there will be a further restructuring of BWIA as the calls for a regional initiative to provide regional air links that will mitigate the dependence on external sources grow louder.  The sharing of key services with LIAT that allows passengers seamless travel through the Caribbean, from and to North America and the UK may be extended to incorporate the other three regional airlines in the region. (Air Jamaica, Bahamasair, Cayman Air). 

The cost reductions to be derived in sharing administrative and operational functions both within and outside the Caribbean regions will assist these airlines in achieving better bottom lines.  The way forward is clear, the reliance on governments and by extension taxpayers must be diminished.  This can only be done when regional airlines of the region begin to generate profits and management continues to look for ways to manage costs.   The responsibility for cost reduction at BWIA is throughout the organisation.  The reluctance of BWIA staff to “eat little and live long” and the management’s small offerings for salary cuts does not auger well for the organisations ability to achieve real cost cutting methods and the belt tightening initiatives that are necessary to achieve the targets. The union’s acceptance that the division of labour will be consolidated and that employees will be asked to multi task outside of the job specifications stated in their employment contracts will ultimately determine success. Management’s and the Board’s ability to maintain transparency and make decisions that put the company first will go a long way in making it easy for the union to accept such proposals.  The first round of cost cutting is always the easiest.  Most organisations have some fat and this is easy to trim.  The lease and outsourcing options have provided  real cost savings in various industries and are not innovative solutions.
 
Innovation comes from scrutiny of the way things are done and devising new methods of doing them and rewriting policies to support the new methodologies.  If BWIA is serious about cost cutting then we expect to see a new organisational structure, new job functions that result from the merging of present functions, new policies and procedures to support the cost reduction initiatives, a greater and more responsible involvement by the union in real decision making, new attitudes and service levels by cabin staff and more complimentary press articles about the company. Management seems confident that they have started a turnaround and the level of restructuring completed thus far are in a position to take advantage of any upturn in market conditions. According to then CEO Conrad Aleong, “ A BWIA with its enviable routes, two A340s, nine B737-800s, smaller focussed workforce of skilled professionals, new self-service technology, and a regional feeder partner will be unbeatable.” We will have to wait to examine the validity of that statement.
Maxine Attong is a financial and management consultant.
Email: enhanceink@hotmail.c-om

Slag cement fit for local builders

Engineers have been told that slag cement can add to a building’s life span and in the process save them money as well. The point was made at  a recent symposium at the UWI, St Augustine, titled,  “Attributes and Benefits of Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GGBFS) in concrete production in the Caribbean.” It was hosted by the Faculty of Engineering, in conjunction with the Engineering Institute. Over 200 engineers and students attended to hear a lecture on the merit of the product  from Henry B Prenger of International Cement Manufacturers’ La Farge, the world’s largest manufacturer of cement. Prenger indicated that when constructing structures, particularly of a mass concrete variety, slag cement was increasingly the material of choice for engineers and contractos around the world. These structures show increased strength, durability, lower permeability and lower heat of hydration and resistance to sulphate attack. Given Trinidad’s situation, he indicated that the product was particularly well suited either to structures being funded by government or private construction. Therefore, he said, it was hard to think of any reason why the product would not be more widely used.

He noted further that where slag cement’s pricing structure was concerned it would be hard to justify not using it, as it is virtually the same price as ordinary Portland Cement. This can give buildings a much longer life than they are currently getting, Prenger said. Attention was also drawn to the environmental benefits of the product, another major advantage, as compared to the harmful effects specifically on the planet’s “ozone layer” on continuing existing cement practices. Harricrete Limited, the only local supplier of Slag cement noted that enquires received after the conference, especially from government ministries, indicated that engineers were receptive to the idea. The company further noted that it has had to establish a special “slag hotline” to deal with the influx of customer inquiries, especially from members of the public.

Scotia eyes local insurance market

After some false starts, Scotiabank (Trinidad and Tobago) is putting the wheels in motion to enter the lucrative local insurance market. Simone Penco, senior manager, sales and marketing, Scotia-bank, confirmed this, noting though that this aspect of the bank’s operations was not new. Insurance forms part of the portfolio offered in other countries, like Jamaica, she said. “It is premature to give any further details at this point in time. However, what we can say is that as part of the ongoing strategy of Scotia, we will continue to ensure that customers benefit from the full range of financial products and services that are available internationally.” Margaret Yearwood, acting supervisor of insurance, said that Scotiabank did apply to operate an insurance business in TT, but was not willing to divulge any more information. The new insurance portfolio is expected to be headed by Gillian Poon Ting. Financial analysts expect the financial backing to come from Scotia International. Scotiabank’s local operation performed well and produced record results in 2002. According to the bank’s chairman Bruce R Birmingham, this was borne out in the strong performance ratios and being the strongest in the local banking industry. The bank was adjudged the “Best bank in the Caribbean — 2002” by Latin Finance.

Year over year, the bank’s share price rose 38.78 percent from $14.49 to $20.11, and the total dividend payout for the fiscal year stood at 64 cents per share, the largest payment made to shareholders in the history of the bank. Birmingham said Scotiabank has been well established in the Caribbean and Latin American region for over 110 years. The bank serves more than two million customers in 24 countries in the area through some 220 branches. The bank also won the prestigious award for “Best Bank in the Caribbean — 2002” from Latin Finance magazine for its excellence in customer service in the region. The bank’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Scotiatrust and Merchant Bank also had a good year. Richard Young, managing director, Scotiabank, said Scotiatrust crossed the billion dollar mark in assets in 2002. Total assets increased from $953 million in 2001 to $1.1 billion in 2002, an increase of $139 million or 14.6 percent year over year. Young said this, accompanied by decreased funding costs, provided for an increase in net profit of $15 million or 81 percent over the previous year. But, Scotiabank is not the only bank that has ventured into the insurance sector. Last year, Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL) implemented a new general insurance division under the sub-holding company, Guardian General Limited (GGL). RBTT Financial Limited is a 20 percent shareholder in GGL, which comprises of NEMWIL, Caribbean Home and West Indies Alliance (Jamaica), and has its own board of directors.

NLCB: Watch those promotions

Companies need to be more diligent in organising their promotions so as not to incur the wrath of  consumers, Devant Maharaj, Public Relations Officer and Marketing Manager at the National Lotteries Control Board (NLCB), said. A big concern for the NLCB, said Maharaj, is the number of promotions that come out during peak times, jamming supermarkets with entry boxes and promotional paraphernalia. Some big promotions so far include the Coca Cola “Uncap Your Child’s Real Potential” which offer a  grand prize in Roytrin units and Dell computers, Johnson and Johnson “Jolly Beach Resort” promotion, the Toyota “ Vacation for Two” promotion and the Crix “Draw Culture” promotion. But entering these promotions, can be a hassle for consumers, said Maharaj. “To get to one entry box, you have to step over ten others,” he said. The NLCB gets flooded with calls from disgruntled customers concerning inconsistencies with promotions. “Things like collection dates and giveaways are sources of concern for customers. We get complaints that companies say they are picking up entries on a Friday and the pick it up on the Thursday instead. They advertise a grand prize and then give away something else or nobody wins the grand prize,” said Maharaj.

He said companies need to be more vigilant in the way they execute their promotions, since most consumers take them very seriously. But Feisal Muradali, Regional Marketing Manager for Coca-Cola, defended his company’s promotions. Muradali said the company’s intention is to involve their customers in the profile of the brand. For example, Coca-Cola has been running a programme called Every Woman on 90.5FM and 104FM, in an attempt to reach what Muradali calls the “gatekeepers” or the moms within homes. Also Coca-Cola recently launched a savings card called the Coca-Cola Crew Card to reach its core market of teenagers and young adults. He said promotions like these are intended to reward consumers for consistently choosing their brand and also as a means of creating excitement about the product. All promotions need to be approved by the NLCB, which means, once customers see “NLCB” stamped on promotional material, they automatically go to the Board with queries and complaints, said Maharaj. Promotions became a regulated sector in 1997, when the NLCB gambling act was amended. Maharaj said this amendment became a necessity to stop some companies from carrying out promotions that were similar to the NLCB lotteries, like scratch card promotions. This made it difficult for consumers to spot a real NLCB lottery game as opposed to a knock off seven years ago, said Maharaj. It therefore became illegal to carry out promotions without NLCB approval, after 1997.

The penalty for illegal promotions under Act Number One of 1997, chapter 11, section 19, is TT$100,000 or two years imprisonment. While Maharaj said no company has ever been penalised since the induction of the Act, companies offering false promises or inaccurate information, often run the risk of frustrating and angering their valued consumers. “The act is not meant to be punitive. We will not beat anyone with a big stick or go out of our way to be anti-business. It was merely designed to prevent lottery like promotions,” said Maharaj. NLCB gives approval to an average of ten promotions per day, which adds up to over 3000 promotions running in any given year, during peak seasons like Carnival, Easter, Christmas and summer vacation. Now, applications are also available online at the NLCB web site for companies seeking approval.

CL Financial ups ante with M5000 methanol plant

Methanol Holdings Trinidad Limited has begun construction of its M5000 plant, the company’s latest broadside into the lucrative business. According to Lawrence Duprey, Chairman,  start up date of the first quarter is in 2005. Since 1990, MHTL has constructed, commissioned and operated three methanol, plants starting with the CMC plant. This was followed by the TTMC II plant and the MIV plant. Apart from massive investments in methanol MHTL also has significant investments in ammonia and is pursuing upstream opportunities in oil and gas, said Duprey. “We are also poised to enter the downstream petrochemical sector in a significant way shortly,” said Duprey at the project launch at Point Lisas.

The M5000 will be the number one exporter as well as the number one producer of methanol worldwide, according to the company’s chairman. The plant is set to be between the existing CMC methanol plant and the TTMC I plant, allowing it to co-exist with the two plants. The rated capacity for the plant is 5000 metric tons per day which stands at more than three times the capacity of MHTL largest existing plant. M5000 will be capable of using purge gases from the existing plants to produce an additional 400 tons per day, making it the world’s largest methanol plant in terms of production.

Q&A with CMMB Securities

Q. I’m a regular saver and have a little put aside for retirement. But at age 52, I’m getting anxious that if something happens to me, my family will be in deep water. What can I do to make my money work harder?


Chandu, Freeport



A: You probably have at least eight more years, maybe more, before retirement. Therefore your objective, as you quite rightly said, is to build your wealth so at retirement, when you do not have a salary coming in, you would be able to live comfortably and give your children a start in life. The only way to increase your wealth, especially in this low interest rate environment, is to invest in the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange. The returns on this market have been quite attractive, somewhere near an average of 19% per year for the past ten years. Now, while the market performs well over the long term, there could be volatile swings in prices in the short term. Therefore, the money that you put into the stock market must be locked in for a long period of time i.e. over five years. This is important because if you liquidate an investment in the stock market before that, there is a probability that the prices of shares could be down at the time thus incurring losses on sale. So make sure the part of your savings that you invest are not needed in the short-term. Talk to your stockbroker and get advice as to which shares appear likely to be on an upward path.



Q. Your column has often given advice on investing in the stock market, but are there any circumstances that would make it a bad idea to invest in the market?


Sherina, Point Fortin



A: The stock market does not go up perpetually. In the same way an economy goes through periods of boom and slump, the stock market in any country may also go up or down from time to time. In fact, research has shown that the stock market is a leading indicator of the economic cycles in a country. For example, when the US economy is going into a slowdown, the US stock market starts to fall some time before that. Similarly, if the US economy is poised to experience an upturn, the US stock market starts to rise a few months before that.
Therefore, over the past two years in the Unites States, when the economy was down, stocks were also bearish (falling) and an investor would have derived negative returns. However, certain sectors of the US market are now going up due to the release of positive economic numbers such as housing starts, which is restoring some confidence in the market. But other news such as durable goods orders and the level of the budget deficit has been worse than expected and so the market did experience some declines on release of those numbers.
So the market is still very volatile in the US and if you are an investor who is not in a position to take on too much risk, now may not a good time to go into the US market. In Trinidad & Tobago, the economy has been growing despite the worldwide slowdown due to the high oil prices and investments in the LNG sector. Hence our stock market has been rising consistently in tandem with this economic growth. Therefore, conservative investors would want to focus on the local market for the time being. However, a survey of US economists shows that the US market would pick up by the end of December this year. If this prediction materialises, then one would want to get into the US stock market around August to September to ride the recovery. Market timing is important in investing in the stock market. Talk to a qualified financial advisor as to when is the right time for you.



Q. What is the meaning of a stock split?


Jerry, Maraval



A: A stock split, as the name implies, is when a share is split in a certain ratio. For example, a 2 for 1 stock split means that for each unit of a share before the split there are now two units after the split. In this example, every stockholder owns twice the number of shares in the firm after the split, but each unit of stock is worth proportionately less, i.e. half of the original price. However, since the number of units held is twice that held originally, the dollar value of each shareholder’s holding remains unchanged. So just after the split the value of shareholder wealth remains the same although the number of shares in issue has doubled. The benefit of doing this from the company’s point of view is to increase the market of possible shareholders. As the price of a share falls it immediately becomes affordable to a wider group of people. It may ultimately result in a wider distribution of holdings. This may then eventually increase the frequency of trading and the price efficiency of the share (how quickly the price of the share reacts to information about the company). However, experience has shown that a stock price rises on the announcement of a stock split. This is because of the interpretation investors have about the meaning of a stock split. It is argued that firms will only split their stock if they believe their stock price will keep rising, or feel that they can increase their dividends in future periods on a larger number of shares. In fact, on the local stock exchange there have been cases where shares have been split and the price after the split eventually increased back up to the pre-split prices thus generating significant returns for investors. Talk to your broker to get advice on which shares look likely to split.


Questions can be sent to : Po Box 1830, Wrightson Road, Port-of-Spain.
E-mail: cmmbsecurities@mycmmb.com