N Touch

NEL in bloom, JMMB perks up but FCIB income dips

National Enterprises Limited Revision of Earnings Estimate for the year ended March 31, 2003


In light of the higher than expected results for the year ended December 31, 2002 from National Flour Mills and the reported 18% increase in Telecommunications Services of Trinidad and Tobago (TSTT) results for the year ended March 31, 2003 we have revised upwards our forecast for National Enterprises Limited (NEL) for the year ended March 31, 2003. NEL had estimated that TSTT would contribute $196.912 million for the year ended March 31, 2003; the actual figure would be $223.900 million.  National Flour Mills contribution was estimated at $11.269 million while the actual figure was $18.223 million.  When we take into account these increases we have revised our earnings per share estimate to 53 cents per share up from the 46 cents per share in the forecast.  We have also revised our dividend estimate to 30 cents per share up from the previous estimate of 27 cents per share.

We believe this is achievable and the forecast for the year ended March 31, 2004 would also be surpassed.  This assertion is based on the fact that TSTT is expected to continue to perform well especially as the advent of new competition is still not on the horizon. Another compelling factor is higher ammonia prices which have gone from US$147.61 a metric tonne at the end of 2002 to a peak of US$243.2 million at the end of March 2003.  The price has since receded and is presently trading in a band between US$180 and US$200 a metric tonne.  Thus we reiterate our buy recommendation on this share.


First Caribbean International Bank Results for the period ended April 30, 2003.  All amounts in Bds $.



The results of First Caribbean International Bank (FCIB) for the period ended April 30, 2003 are compared with pro-forma results of the combined entity of Barclays and CIBC had it existed in the prior period in 2002.  Total income declined by 3.9 per cent to Bds$368.2 million in 2003 compared to the Bds$383.3 million in the previous period in 2002. Operating profit was down 17.1 per cent at Bds$94.2 million in 2003 versus Bds$113.6 million in the prior period in 2002.  Net income showed a decline of 33.4 per cent to Bds$66.7 million in 2003 against Bds$100.1 million in the similar period in 2002.  The Chairman pointed to the decline in interest rates in the US as the main cause of the decline in net-interest income.  Conversely, higher fees in foreign exchange and capital markets combined with reductions in non-interest expenses led to increased non-interest income.   He also stated that net income would have increased 2.0 per cent with the exclusion of goodwill and integration costs. 

We draw attention to these same items, and point out that integration costs and goodwill shall continue to impact FCIB’s results for several years.  Earnings per share reached Bds4.3 cents in 2003 down from the Bds6.7 cents posted in 2002.  An interim dividend of Bds2.5 cents has been declared, payable on July 11, 2003 to registered members as at June 16, 2003.  Based on these results we are projecting a full-year EPS of TT30 cents and a dividend payout of 15 cents.   


Jamaica Money Market Brokers Results for the year ended February 28, 2003. All amounts in J’can $.


In the year ended February 28, 2003 Jamaica Money Market Brokers (JMMB) achieved an increase in gross income of 52.5 per cent to JA$1.54 billion.  Operating profit increased 28.6 per cent to JA$710.7 million, while pre-tax earnings were 76.0 per cent higher at JA$944.2 million.  Profit attributable to shareholders reached JA$900.5 million in 2003, a 64.0 per cent increase over the similar period in 2002.  Earnings per share in 2003 was 61.5 cents compared to 37.5 cents in 2002.  We await further details.


Major Advances
Furness up 32 cents (+9.47 per cent)
National Enterprises up 15 cents
(+3.03 per cent)
Grace Kennedy & Co. up 3 cents
 (+0.66 per cent)


Major Declines
Trinidad Cement down 30 cents
(-5.62 per cent)
Readymix down 10 cents (-1.47 per cent)


Analysis by West Indies Stockbrokers Limited, 23a Chacon Street, Port of Spain, Trinidad (868) 623-4861 Fax (868)-627-5002
e-mail: wise@carib-link.net. Member of the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange Ltd.

Computers and Controls in IT deal with US company

Peter Gillette, Chairman of the Gillette Group last week signed a reciprocal training agreement with Derek Robinson, President of Convergent Communications Inc (CCI) to export technical training, software development and course development to the United States.

Computers and Controls (C&C) in its newest partnership agreement with Convergent Communications Inc., a Washington based company which specialises in technical courseware development and delivery in the IT environment, has agreed, that the Professional Services Division of Computers and Controls will conduct its first training initiative in the United States scheduled for July of this year. The training will entail training in the CISCO Network Professional Certification Course (CCNP). CCI is a Cisco training partner and as such offers certified Cisco courses such as the CCNP throughout the United States and the United Kingdom.

In Trinidad CCI will be partnering with the professional services division of Computers and Controls to create and deliver cutting edge training curricula to Trinidad and Tobago. The approach to training will be truly innovative and can be described, as “hands on” it will include both lab and virtual lab/classrooms options. The training being provided in Trinidad by CCI in conjunction with Computers and Controls includes Local Area (LAN) and Wide Area Networking (wan) technologies, IP Telephony, Quality of Service considerations in Packet Networks, Storage Area Networking, Multi-protocol Label Switching, Optical Networking and a number of Technical Sales courses. Training modules currently being designed for Trinidad and Tobago by CCI are in the areas of Voice Data Convergence and Storage Area Networking with labs designed by CISCO in conjunction with CCI.

Stocks on steady climb

Stocks continued their steady climb last week with the DOW rising above the 9000 resistance level and staying there. In fact, most indexes have risen above their 200 day moving averages based on the equity markets interpretation of the improving economic picture.

Even though significant advances have been made, our research still shows the S&P 500 is undervalued by 15% relative to our fair value estimate of 1150.  All the major global markets were up last week by over 2% with the German DAX and Japanese Nikkei leading the rise at 4.6% and 4.1% respectively. The volatile tech index NASDAQ, is now up 22% for the year to date, having risen 7 out of the last 8 weeks. The performance makes it the best performing major market index for the year. The S&P is up 12% year to date and the DAX 8.1%. All the major market indexes are now in positive territory on a year to date basis. Of particular interest to us at Investments International, is that Equity Mutual Fund cash in flows, our investment specialty, have risen dramatically and totalled USD 1.5 billion in the United States over last week. Bond funds also saw a good inflow for the week, hitting USD 2.4 billion in the USA. We note that economists forecast US GDP growth in 3rd and 4th quarter this year to be 3.5% and 3.7% respectively, more or less in line with what the bond market is indicating the growth should be via its yields.

 However, the equity markets are ahead in valuation of such growth to the bottom line revenues of companies, indicating that either the US equity markets are optimistic or that the economists predictions are conservative. At this point, we believe that, factoring in the expected United States Federal Reserve rate adjustment downward and the effects (which have yet to be seen) of the Bush tax stimulus plan, the US economy will outperform economists expectations in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Last week, economic news from the US included worse than expected weekly initial jobless claim’s, which rose to a 5-week high of 442,000, up 16,000, in the week ending 31st May. The overall unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.1%. Employment remains the weakest link in the economic recovery. Better news came from the manufacturing sector, with the Institute of Supply Management reporting an improvement in its Manufacturing Index, during May, from 45.4 to 49.4. The Services Index  rose from 50.7 in April to 54.5 in May, more than what economists predicted. Key economic news from across the pond came from the European Central Bank when they cut short term rates by 50 basis points to 2.0%. ECB President, Wim Duisenburg, also hinted that further cuts were likely to help the economic recovery. The Euro responded accordingly falling to less than 1.17 on the US Dollar. The Central Banks in Denmark and Sweden also lowered rates last week.

The Bank of England left the UK overnight rates at 3.75%, thus the Great Britain Pound jumped to a three and a half year high, breaking the 1.66 mark against the US Dollar. Also in England, the Confederation of British Industry disclosed that retail sales had their best month in six months with over 40% of retailers stating sales were up in May. US Corporate governance issues were in the press again last week and early this week with Sam Waksal, President of Imclone getting sentenced on Tuesday after pleading guilty to insider trading charges. Also as a part of the Imclone scandal, Martha Stewart was formally charged for insider trading and lying to SEC investigators on the sale of USD 228,000 of Imclone stock the day before an unfavorable announcement was to be released on the Companies cancer drug application. Looking forward, we continue to believe that diversified growth oriented investors should consider value based equities as a core position with a view to developing holdings in small and mid size capital growth type companies. Sectors we feel will outperform in the near to medium term are Health Care, Financial Services, Consumer Discretionary and Technology. e-mail:darcy@investments-intl.com

Removing trade barriers brings unrest

The increase in industrial unrest across the Caribbean region are the effects of globalisation, the removal of trade barriers and the insecurity of workers and employers.

This was the view of Dr Rose-Marie Antoine, Senior Law Lecturer, UWI Cave Hill. She was the feature speaker at Ernst and Young’s half day seminar on “Labour Law — A Caribbean Perspective” which was held last week at the Hilton Trinidad. “Globalisation creates a certain helplessness and makes workers and employers unsure of how to respond to global forces which ordinary workers seem to have no say and control.” Dr Antoine, wife of St Lucian Prime Minister Dr Kenny Anthony, said this is something all countries in the region have to consider. But more importantly, she said unions in particular need to be sure that they are able to address these concerns or they may become irrelevant. “I do not think that it is sufficient for unions to operate in the traditional way and look at traditional issues because there are more important global matters to address. What we are seeing is that workers and unions seem to lack a voice because many of the decisions are coming from international bodies such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO).” Additionally she said, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) seem to be taking up the fight for workers, and not unions.

But Michael Annisette, President General, Seamen and Waterfront Workers Trade Union (SWWTU) disagrees with Dr Antoine. He said most if all unions in TT are taking up relevant, current issues such as the Social Clause and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) with the government. He added that they were also trying to get tripartite discussions going on what implications the World Trade Organisation (WTO) will have on TT and indeed the wider Caribbean. “All these are relevant issues which are going to affect TT and the other countries of the Caribbean so we are trying to ensure that we have a say in all the discussions,” he said. Annisette said while they are not sure of what the implications of the FTAA and WTO are going to be, they still want to make sure that TT is ready to face them. He said the FTAA is most likely to exacerbate the current crime and unemployment situation in TT and the unions are working to ensure job security for all workers. “While some of our ways might be traditional, in the sense that we are still marching around Parliament and taking to the streets, we are nonetheless addressing the issues that will affect the workers,” he said.


Carlton Gibson, first vice-president, Oilfields Workers Trade Union (OWTU) shared Annisette’s views, saying his union have been championing the cause for workers and some of the issues which are relevant to trade unions are also relevant to social organisations (NGOs). “So NGOs also have a right to speak on behalf of its members. The issues do not only affect trade unions but NGOs as well.” With regards to the global issues, Gibson said they have been enlightening and empowering their members on all the relevant issues such as the WTO and FTAA and how it will affect workers and some of the social implications for TT. “These are issues that are current. We have discussions and seminars and trying to deal with these issues. So progressive unions have taken up these issues.”

Dr Antoine said there needs to be some sort of inquiry into why there seems to be so much unrest in the region. She said the question of why this is happening in areas such as essential services must be addressed. “In Dominica public servants are on strike and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been called in. In TT there is the issue of doctors and nurses on strike.” She said in Barbados the matter is particularly worrying because there tends to be “wildcat” strikes and sometimes workers just take to the streets and do not bother with their respective unions. “This is quite a phenomena if you know the Barbadian psyche. They are rather conservative. So although Trinidadians and Jamaicans are accustomed striking, in Barbados it is rather unusual.”  Dr Antoine said in her mind, this type of behaviour just mirrors some of the unrest that is happening elsewhere in the world, whether it is Iraq or trade liberalisation.

Abortion, an atrocity

THE EDITOR: We the people of this nation of Trinidad and Tobago, love our children. Why would we succumb to the seduction of America to put as many of our children to death under the pretext of helping “poor women?” The truth is, “The pregnant mother must not be left alone, left alone with her doubts and fears, her difficulties and temptations.

We must stand with her, so that she might have the necessary courage and faith, so that her conscience will not be burdened. Everyone must in a certain way be with every mother who is to give birth and offer every possible aid.” John Paul II. We have put “helping poor women” to the test by taking them in, helping with all that is necessary for them to bring their babies to term. We can show you pictures of happy mothers with their babies and others whose babies have been adopted by those who would otherwise have no children. No right thinking human being can say it is right to kill a baby. For any country to make this heinous act legal is foretelling its own future. Abortion is an atrocity, changing the whole thought process of our country.

Violet D’ORNELLAS
Diego Martin

Wise approach for AG

THE EDITOR: Political double speak is a much-abused term, but the PNM has succeeded in giving it new meaning. An example is the position adopted by the Attorney General that her public statements on the Lindquist investigation into the WASA payment to Water Farms Ltd (Watergate) is not intended to influence the investigation. She claims that her public statements were “intended to correct a mis-statement by Mr Ganga Singh”. How does she know that it is a mis-statement if the investigation is ongoing.

Such a conclusion could only be arrived at after the investigation has ended. More than that, such a conclusion can only be arrived at by a judicial officer, which, with due regard to her office, the AG is not. Further, any statement in respect of information or evidence brought before the investigators must of necessity impact on their perception of that evidence, especially coming from the person who is paying the bills. The AG is being disingenuous to suggest otherwise. The wisest approach for the Attorney-General, and many other politicians, is to shut up and let events run their course. See how it has worked for Minister Colm Imbert.

KARAN MAHABIRSINGH
Chase Village

NLCB must level playing field

THE EDITOR: In his 1962 Independence address, the late PM Dr Williams gave the national community the solemn undertaking that Mother TT would not and could not discriminate among its cosmopolitanism.

Mother TT is not the 2000 square miles of inanimate land and its accompanying ocean space but in fact speaks through the government and its agencies. Those of us traditionally resident in rural TT, who survived in spite of Dr Williams’ regime of ethno-nationalism also called the policy of cultural assimilation, have learnt not to be deceived anymore by political niceties. Furthermore, when PM Manning in his Indian Day Arrival address at the Divali Nagar (Newsday June 1, p 6) said that TT was one big family having previously declared himself the Father of the Nation (family) and was joined earlier this year by his wife Hazel as the Mother of the Nation they may not understand the extent to which these posturings raise national expectations on equity, (Mr Manning is on record as saying that it does not mean equality), justice and fair-play.

Twenty-first century and alert TT will not fall easy prey to vacuous high-sounding ideals but expect the people to walk the talk. These prefatory remarks serve as a backdrop to assess the response of the Lottery Control Board (NLCB) on accusations of discrimination in the manner of the disbursement of funds voiced by Sat Maharaj of the Maha Sabha. The Board feels that it is sufficient merely to issue a vacuous press release (Newsday June 6, p 8) denying those charges instead of doing the transparent, honest, credible and accountable thing of using its enormous advertising budget to publish in the press the full list of beneficiaries of the disbursement of the largesse of the public purse. Instead it urges Mr Maharaj to obtain the correct information. From whom may I ask?

Let the public who support the lottery judge whether there is evidence of equityor discrimination based on geography, ethnicity, creed or political patronage in the allocation of the Board’s assistance to beneficiary organisations. Today is not PoS-centric 1961 TT. Trinbagon-ians have learnt that equity and justice are not dispensed by an invisible blindfolded hand but is the result of eternal vigilance, activism and assertiveness. The politically-appointed Lottery Board cannot be perceived to be acting in a discriminatory manner in the disbursement of the public purse. Neither should its modus operandi or its criteria for allocating public funds be shrouded in secrecy, arbitrariness and friendship. In accordance with The Freedom of Information Act the NLCB’s operations as well as the procedures for accessing information on its operations must be in the public domain. The Board is under an obligation to establish a level playing field where everyone knows the modalities/priorities for accessing funding.

Do the people in Cacandee, Poole, Biche, Caroni etc know how? For the Board to exclude from its largesse deserving charitable organisations operating in the above-mentioned areas because they do not write it, is a consequence of discriminatory reason. The drawing of its lottery on Wednes-days/Saturdays must also be subject to public scrutiny as is done in many other countries. Who can tell me without fear of contradiction that these TV drawings are nor pre-recorded with its potential for graft and corruption? The named auditors cannot be termed independent as they are paid by the NLCB. The NLCB must walk the talk and know its constituency.

STEPHEN KANGAL
Caroni

Support for US, UK

THE EDITOR: Until M A Kerr (“MAK” of old) discovers evidence in the US and UK of thousands of anonymous graves of political dissidents, sees videos of such unfortunates being executed by having explosives trapped to their bodies and detonated, or knows that Blair and Bush habitually had such people chopped into small pieces and returned to their families in a bag or employed state-paid rapists to sexually abuse their female family members, I will continue to praise and support Saddam Hussein’s overthrow and the return of Iraq to some semblance of democracy.

The same too should happen, as I have said, to North Korea and Zimbabwe. Those who backed the UN against the UK and US should take note of what tragedy is now unfolding in the Democratic Republic of the Congo where UN troops are sitting in the middle of a tribal blood bath. If MAK and other liberal do-gooders are prepared to let evil monsters like Saddam Hussein and his barbarous family rule supreme and unquestioned, then I hope they truly feel the world would be a better place. Perhaps, Hitler or his dictatorial successors would long since have crushed democracy in Western Europe and no one would have had the right to express any opinion pro or con war. A perfect world MAK?

GEOFF HUDSON
Port-of-Spain

Tribute to the Mortons and Grants

THE EDITOR: At a time when we are celebrating “arrivals” with the attendant festivities, the men and women who have changed the lives of a people by their presence must always be fondly remembered.

John and Sarah Morton, Kenneth and Elizabeth Grant were pioneers of the Canadian Mission whose arrival here in 1868 must not be forgotten for the values they developed in the lives of the East Indians here in their pastoral sojourn to these parts. The changes brought about in their lives by the presence of these missionaries and by adherence to the Christian faith and upbringing can be measured only by values that have come out of this experience. Jane Rookmin Go-bin was her name, born in the old Spanish town of St Joseph in the adjacent rural holding called at the time “Lajo — day see day” and known today as Elizabeth Gardens. Jane was the eldest daughter of Chinta and her husband Gobin, two simple souls whose parents came out of the indenture experience to find comfort in the hills of St Joseph and the rustic rural surrounding.

At the time, John Morton the Canadian missionary, on his second visit to Trinidad, heartened by the problems of these simple folks, thought of introducing into their lives the values best understood by him in the Christian faith. In the village, John Morton walked, cycled tirelessly with hope and compassionate understanding, and like the biblical fisherman set about to win souls to the Lord. Morton’s approach was simple and abiding and at these homes he would counsel with the parents and guardians and with fatherly love bring into the hearts of his listeners the good word of compassion and love. From the Gobins, John Morton took young Jane, among others, to his home and sanctuary at Tunapuna to continue with the learning process in a new and friendly environment. Sarah Morton, wife of John Morton, became the compassionate “mother” and teacher to whom they paid the greatest respect with good manners and abiding obedience at their new home.

It was at the home of the Mortons that the girls were taught primary school subjects and in addition, handicraft and skills. Values developed in the new environment had an abiding effect on the girls, indeed Jane, as it served to benefit them in the years of family life. It was in the early nineteen hundreds Jane was introduced by Morton to be the wife of a Sangre Grande businessman. In 1909 the newly wedded couple arrived by train at the Guaico village station after a wedding ceremony held in St Joseph. It was at Guaico all the children were born of the wedded couple. In a family of sons, daughters, sons-in-law, daughters-in-law, grand and great grand children there are teachers, school principals, public servants, doctors, dentists, lawyers and an architect. To those of us whose parents came under the influence of the Canadian Missionaries, John and Sarah Morton, Kenneth and Elizabeth Grant, we must always be grateful to them for the love, compassion and selfless service they extended by sharing with us their experiences that changed our lives and others in a new environment that had been created in a Faith that they have embraced with fulfilment and love. Jane Rookmin Gobin Benjamin (deceased) was my mother. May her soul rest in peace.


W H BENJAMIN
Valsayn

Not so tranquil Tobago

THE EDITOR: I must bring to the attention of your readers, the Tobago House of Assembly, TIDCO, and the authorities responsible for monitoring noise pollution, my recent experience in not so tranquil Tobago.

My wife and I love Tobago and we spend two or three week-ends a year relaxing and enjoying the beautiful sea and sand of our sister isle. We decided to spend a quiet “Arrival Day” weekend in Tobago and rented an apartment at Store Bay. We arrived on Thursday May 29 at about 11 am and from that time until our departure on the afternoon of Sunday June 1, we were subjected daily to excessively loud noise from the massive loudspeakers installed at the Store Bay beach facility. Because of this loud noise we had extreme difficulty in even carrying on a conversation. Our “quiet weekend” was ruined. This noise pollution is not confined to Store Bay but is being experienced by residents and visitors in many parts of the island. Surely the relevant authorities are aware that Tobago is fast becoming more noisy than West Port-of-Spain and it is losing its image of being “tranquil Tobago.” Immediate action is required to return quiet and tranquility to Tobago.

ALEX GOMEZ
Westmoorings