Aids punching holes in econony

If unchecked,  the economic growth of this country can be undermined by HIV/Aids virus. It is estimated that by next year, our Gross National Product (GNP) will be at least 4.2 per cent lower than it would have been in the absence of HIV/AIDS with agriculture and manufacturing being hit hard. The National HIV/AIDS Strategic Plan 2004-2008 (NSP) in which  US$90.33 million would be spent over the next five years  to avert some 3,864 new HIV/AIDS infections, painted a grim picture. The NSP notes that because of the infectious chronic nature of the disease, the mortality structure strikes the most productive members of society, with over 50 per cent of them being new infections among youths between 15-24 years; and about 70 per cent of all HIV/AIDS cases falling between the age group of 15-44 year.

Therefore the impact of the disease has the ability to undermine the economic growth of a country, through the effects on human, physical and social capital. The NSP says at the macroeconomic level, the immediate impact will be felt in terms of productivity losses due to decreases in labour supply. As a result, there will be a consequential fall in employment in key sectors like agriculture and manufacturing by 20 per cent, if the disease is left unchecked. The study further points out that in “the absence of a national response, national savings stand to fall by as much as 10.3 per cent. The disease therefore has the real potential to cripple the level of national investment, which is a key variable in the determination of long term economic growth.”

At the level of the household, the NSP said based on the South African Health Review 2000, Fact, Figures and the Future, the financial impact of AIDS has been shown to be almost 30 per cent higher than deaths due to other diseases. The projection that the plan will help avert 3,864 new infections over the five year period, is based on the assumption that the NSP’s prevention programme will be effective in decreasing the incidence rate to 30 per cent of its 2003 value at the end of the five year period.

In financial terms, the NSP says its prevention component can be expected to yield an “absolute gain of more than US$271 million.” The amount of years of lives saved is expected to be 38,640 with an averted cost of care at US$31.0 million and a US$240.5 million in productivity losses. Dubbed as the instrument for “initiating the required expanded response,” the NSP has as its guiding principles inclusion, sustainability, accountability and respect for human rights. In this the first year of the plan, an implementation cost of US$15.61 million is expected to be spent. In the subsequent years US$18.55, US$17.01, US$18.52 and US$20.64 million are expected to be spent. The NSP has several specific areas where monies will be spent over the five year period.