And the tourists just keep coming

“I want to ask any Member in this House where they have seen in research that there is a positive correlation between crime and tourism.” “And this Government continues to talk - oh yes the crime is increasing but the tourism is increasing too - that could never be. There must be a negative correlation.” — Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan on March 1, speaking during a debate on tourism in the Senate recently.

Business Day has done some research to see exactly what the relationship was between crime and the influx of tourists across the region. The results (See table at top) are somewhat unexpected and might surprise some:

•Murder rates rose sharply in 2004 for six of the Caribbean countries shown in the table, but fell in the Bahamas and in Guyana.
•The high per-capita murder rate is not just a Trinidad and Tobago problem. Countries throughout the region are affected, from the concrete jungles of Kingston, Jamaica to pretty little St Kitts, from the prosperous Bahamas to struggling Guyana.
•Tourist numbers were up by 4.8% in Jamaica, where the murder rate is one of the highest in the world, and increasing rapidly.
•The slowest increase in tourism was in the Bahamas, where the murder rate fell by 12% in 2004.
•Trinidad and Tobago had the third-fastest increase in tourism, in spite of its rising murder rate.
•At least five Caribbean countries have a higher per-capita murder rate than Trinidad and Tobago.
•All of them have thriving tourism industries.
So what does this prove? There are several possibilities:
•Tourists in dangerous countries like Jamaica spend most of their time in all-inclusive resorts, not in risky places like West Kingston.
•Tourists do not carry out a lot of careful research on the countries before they visit.
•Tourists are more likely to be affected by petty crime, which does not grab the headlines — and where the published statistics are notoriously unreliable.

Most vacation tourists visit Tobago, rather than Trinidad. There is petty crime in Tobago. At approximately 8 per 100,000 the murder rate is too high for Tobago. But most vacation tourists are not exposed to crime hot-spots of Trinidad’s east-west corridor. Business visitors, who fill most Port of Spain hotels, come mainly for meetings and conferences, and spend most of their stay in secure environments.

The largest group recorded statistically as “tourists” are overseas Trinis, returning home to visit friends and relatives. They may be well aware of the crime rate, but can make their own choices about where to go, and what precautions to take. And the British and US travel advisories? Most comments seem sensible, but the panic level bears little relation to the murder rate. St Vincent, with 26 murders per 100,000, barely registers except for petty crime. Guyana, with 18 murders per 100,000, advises against after-dark travel, unless in convoy or under escort.