The Lion’s den

Having made clear his opposition to the rally being held with Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj as the featured speaker, Mr Dookeran elected to show up and speak on the platform. Why he did so is anybody’s guess. Had he and those MPs who support him stayed away, it would have emphasised the split in the party’s leadership. And, indeed, the dissident UNC MPs had started a campaign to persuade UNC supporters not to attend Sunday’s rally. But, judging by the number of persons who showed up, it may be that the Dookeran faction soon realised that their strategy was not bearing fruit.

Mr Dookeran must also have been calculating the effects not attending would have on his position as political leader. To not appear at a major rally might have been interpreted as a sign of cowardice on his part. Additionally, Mr Dookeran is perceived as a somehat elitist leader who, unlike Basdeo Panday, does not connect with the grassroots base of the Central party. So, on that basis, he could not afford to miss this chance to address the masses.

But, judging from the content of the speech given by Mr Dookeran, it is clear that he appeared for one overriding reason: to beard the lion in his den. And this is where he miscalculated. Dookeran spoke about the disunity in the UNC, he made thinly-veiled criticisms of Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj, and he sent a signal of defiance to Mr Panday by saying that he wanted Robin Montano back in the Senate.

For his pains, Mr Dookeran was booed by a significant section of the UNC faithful. And, although politics is a Machiavellian game, this was not a case of Mr Dookeran being set up. If anything, he set up himself by taking a line that the party’s supporters did not wish to hear. And Mr Dookeran and his advisors could only have thought he could get away with this because they had three misconceptions. First, they assumed that the disunity at the leadership level reflected a split at the membership level; second, they assumed that disenchantment with Mr Panday was greater than it was; and, third, they assumed that Ramesh was still a pariah to most UNC supporters.

None of this was borne out by Sunday’s rally. Mr Maharaj’s speech and presence were enthusiastically endorsed, while Mr Panday received his customary heartfelt approbation. It may be argued that those who came to the rally represent only the hard core of the UNC base, and that the split within the party is real. Even if this is so, however, it also means that the Dookeran faction has no core of support — or, if it does, they couldn’t be bothered to come out in support of Mr Dookeran.

So the net effect of Sunday’s rally is that Mr Dookeran’s lame duck image is now set in stone. Indeed, it would not be too much to speculate that his days as UNC political leader are now numbered. But the show of support for Mr Panday and Mr Maharaj at best indicates only that their core support is intact. Translating that narrow base into victory in national elections will, however, require more than anti-PNM rallies.