NO AID WITHOUT STRINGS

“Tell it not in Gath, publish it not in the streets of Askelon”: Samuel 2, Chapter 1, Verse 20. Prime Minister Patrick Manning’s statement last week claimed that the United States should foot the bill for most of the crude oil and natural gas exploration in Trinidad and Tobago. Should this take place, it would have implications for this country and, ironically, Western Europe. The Prime Minister’s argument is that a substantial amount of the crude and liquefied natural gas produced here goes to the US, hence the conclusion. If accepted, however, although the United States would be the major beneficiary it would be tantamount to American aid. Interestingly, his posture that the matter was still to be discussed by the Governments of the two countries suggests that not only was the matter broached, but that a favourable outcome had been indicated.

Several questions flow from the PM’s statement. Was the question of the US footing the burden of the bill for exploration a Trinidad and Tobago Government initiative, or was it an initiative of the American Government? Is this why the Prime Minister was able to say in Point Fortin two weeks ago when he went to address the striking workers that there would be no Atlantic Train Five? Were the Americans concerned that their needed supplies of liquefied natural gas were being produced by a European company? Were they concerned, too, that a more positive attempt had not been made to end the industrial dispute much earlier?

But whatever the questions which may flow from the PM’s statements, it would be a mistake for the People’s National Movement Administration to assume that any funding of exploration in Trinidad and Tobago by the US Government would be done out of altruism. I need not have to remind anyone in the administration, or any senior public servant, or any citizen that there is no such thing as aid without strings. And the Americans, should they proceed with the initiative, would be doing this as an investment in guaranteeing the security of their crucially needed supplies of crude and natural gas. Their attempts to control crude oil in Iraq and Afghanistan do not appear to have been as successful as clearly had been first hoped. Within recent weeks Iraq has been increasingly aflame, and Pakistan does not appear to have been as successful in helping the United States to defuse the Taliban threat as had been at first hoped.

The Middle East is an uncertain equation, and there appear to be too many question marks about Saudi Arabia. Admittedly, Libya’s relatively huge reserves of crude are now available to the West, but the United Kingdom and Western Europe have come in on the ground floor ahead of the United States. And while the US can catch up, what must inform the thinking of the Bush Administration is that substantial deals have already been made to which they may not have been privy. Trinidad and Tobago has enough natural gas to last another 50 years or so with anticipated commercial use, plus crude to last another 40 or 50 years. And these two, mind you, exclusive of new reserves which may be discovered. But let us return to the initiative announced last week by Mr Manning. Does this mean that the thinking of the TT Administration is that any future exploration undertaken by Petrotrin exploration, or exploration conducted on behalf of Petrotrin, will be funded by the US? In turn, will the Government formulate a policy position that only Petrotrin will qualify for any exploration activity in areas not already allocated? And taking everything to what appears a logical conclusion, is there the possibility that one or more of the US oil majors will take up what will be a majority shareholding in Petrotrin?

All of this may not be as impossible as appears at first blush. And although official United States policy is that a sizeable portion of the world’s major oil producing areas should be available to Europe, Western Europe that is, and the United States, the European Union and the US are in more than mere token competition with each other. The European Union, with its 1999 policy position to have Iraq, not merely have its crude oil shipments to the EU paid for in Euros, but encourage other Middle East countries to have theirs paid in Euros, even when shipped to countries other than the EU, was designed to undermine the US dollar. And to have it replaced by the Euro as the preferred international unit of currency. We all know what followed. Venezuela, one of the world’s largest producers of crude, and a major supplier of that commodity to the United States, is now being courted by Trinidad and Tobago with respect to joint exploration of crude and natural gas in areas along the two countries’ common energy border. And this is in addition to the plan of having some of Venezuela’s natural gas converted into liquefied natural gas in Trinidad. Under the new equation, is it not reasonable to assume that US funding will pay for this country’s share of the joint exploration and give the US a firm stake in the project? Add to the above Trinidad and Tobago’s known social stability to increased guaranteed supplies of crude and natural gas to the United States and you understand any US interest in funding exploration here.

Incidentally, should the Prime Minister’s observation that the US should foot the bill for most of the exploration be viewed in the context of excluding non United States and Trinidad and Tobago energy companies from any such plan? Meanwhile, even though the principal beneficiary under such a programme will be the United States, it will nonetheless act as though Trinidad and Tobago stood to benefit the greater. It will exact concessions from this country, for example support on major foreign policy issues in the United Nations, the Organisation of American States and the Association of Caribbean States. Was John Stuart Mill’s caustic observation published in Principles of Political Economy, Volume 3, Page 693, University of Toronto Press, 1965, about the Caribbean: “These... are hardly to be looked upon as countries... but more properly as outlying agricultural or manufacturing estates belonging to a larger community,” true after all? And John Stuart Mill had written this in the 19th century!