Food for thought

In 2004, there were 180 fatal road accidents resulting in 203 deaths. Last year, there were 187 fatal accidents resulting in 209 deaths. Put another way, almost 200 persons who died last year could have been alive today if drivers had driven more slowly or drank less alcohol, or if pedestrians had exercised more caution or been faster on their feet.

In fact, some of the statistics released by the PTB tell an interesting story. For example, the majority of road deaths occurred in the months of July and August, while the fewest occurred in February, March and September. Now why should this be? December had the third highest number of deaths, and that poses no surprise since more people are drinking and driving in that month. But the same should hold true for February and March, which are the height of the Carnival season. But this is not the case, and people are not known to drink excessively in July and August, which are holiday months. Yet this is the period which has the most road fatalities.

At first blush, the figures suggest that alcohol may not be as significant a factor in road deaths as generally believed. But this is an unlikely interpretation.

A more probable explanation is that, knowing people drink and drive more in February and March, the police step up their activities in the area of traffic management. If this is not the case, then the police analysts need to take a look at these figures and figure out the reasons for the pattern. A key question to be answered, obviously, is why more road fatalities occur in July and August. This is especially mystifying given that, since this is the time of school holidays, fewer cars are on the road.

Does this cause people to drive faster or is it that more young persons are driving in those months and causing more accidents? We do not know but, clearly, the police need to increase traffic surveillance during the August break.

However, one partial answer for the increased number of road deaths, we note from the figures provided by the PTB, is that the number of pedestrians killed increased in July and August. Overall, pedestrians accounted for nearly one-third of all road fatalities last year (passengers, naturally, accounted for most deaths). The majority of the pedestrians were 50 years and over, while a significant proportion were children and teenagers. It therefore seems that road fatalities could be reduced by ensuring children learn the "look both ways" rule, while older persons have to be reminded to exercise more caution on the road, especially when they cannot walk very fast. But there is a further puzzle here, since the months of January and February were the ones which saw the highest proportion of pedestrians being killed, while October and December had by far the lowest such number. So, again, the police need to analyse why this should be.

Indeed, we would argue that statistical analysis is the key to reducing road deaths in 2006 and beyond. If the police can figure out the patterns, and come up with good hypotheses as to the causes, the PTB will be able to deploy its manpower efficiently. Properly done, the police may not even need more personnel — once they know the main causes of road deaths, they should be able to use their officers and equipment in the most efficient way to reduce the vehicular carnage that is now far too common.