The TTKF said Smith did a lot of work in advancing the local karate organisation not only in TT, but the wider Caribbean region.

Smith conducted numerous workshops and was a major contributor in hosting the Fourth Caribbean Cup Karate Championships in November.

Smith’s commitment to the TTKF will continue in 2017 as he is part of the planning committee for the World United Karate Organisation’s first Pan American Open Championships in June, which will be held at the Jean Pierre Complex in Mucurapo. The TTKF wish Sensei Smith all success for 2017.

In other local karate news, the TTKF welcomed Sensei John Torres as part of the federation.

Torres is the chief instructor for Torres Karate Academy located at Guaico Secondary School.

Torres has been involved in karate for over 30 years and teaches shotokan karate. His Second Dan is registered in the Black Belt registrar of the World United Karate Organisation.

Torres will be pursuing his coaching and referee training with the TTKF and he can be contacted at 499-3479. Persons interested in joining the TTKF can email Keith Taylor at trinbagokarate001@ gmail.com

President of the Trinidad and Tobago Olympic Committee (TTO C) Brian Lewis revealed his aim to increase the medal bonuses at the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. At the 2016 Rio Olympic Games the individual medal bonuses for TT athletes were $10,000 US for gold medallists, $8,000 for silver medallists and $5,000 for bronze medallists.

In the relay events the TT athletes had the opportunity to earn $20,000 US for gold collectively, $15,000 US for silver and $10,000 US for bronze.

The TTO C first introduced the medal bonuses for national athletes at the 2015 Pan American Games.

If Lewis gets his wish gold medal winners will earn $40,000 US saying, “The objective is to take the gold medal (bonus) to $40,000 US for the Tokyo 2020 (Games).” Lewis is also hopeful that the Olympic medal bonuses for bronze and silver medal winners will increase.

Lewis explained that the medal bonuses are part of TTO C’s aim to be performance focused. “It’s performance oriented and that’s what we want to instil, in how the TTO C operates, a performance focused environment. It is better to aim for big goals and we want to take Team TTO (Trinidad and Tobago) in a very consistent way to the world.” At the 2016 Rio Olympics there was a huge disparity in individual gold medal bonuses among countries. Olympic powerhouse USA gave its gold medal winners $25,000 US, while Russia, another force at the Olympic Games, gave its gold medal winners $61,000 US each.

Joseph Schooling became the first athlete from Singapore to win gold for his country at the Olympics when he claimed gold in the men’s 100-metre butterfly in Rio. For his efforts Schooling was given $753,000 US. Some of the other countries which gave their athletes gold medal bonuses were Germany ($20,000 US), Austraila ($15,000 US), while Italian gold medal winners took home a whopping $185,000 US.

Great Britain does not give medal bonuses to its athletes.

The national cricketers are preparing for the Regional Super50 tournament which bowls off at the end of January. Batting first the (Kyle) Hope XI posted 255 for six with wicketkeeper Katwaroo cracking an unbeaten 45 off 37 balls with three fours and one six. Katwaroo was ably supported by Jyd Goolie who scored 42 not out, while Ewart Nicholson and Yannick Ottley both contributed 36. Ricky Jaipaul (2/33) and Roshon Primus (2/27) both grabbed two wickets for the (Marlon) Richards XI.

In reply the Richards XI were dismissed for 115 in 31.2 overs as off spinner Charles snatched 3/19 in 7.2 overs. Yannic Cariah top scored with 22 for the Richards XI, while Philton Williams and Khary Pierre took 2/14 and 2/18 respectively.

SUMMARISED SCOR ES At Queen’s Park Oval: Hope XI 255/6 (Steven Katwaroo 45 not out, Jyd Goolie 42 not out, Ewart Nicholson 36, Yannick Ottley 36, Ricky Jaipaul 2/33, Roshon Primus 2/27) vs Richards XI 115 (31.2 overs) (Yannic Cariah 22, Bryan Charles 3/19, Philton Williams 2/14, Khary Pierre 2/18) Hope XI won by 140 runs

Schneider Electric SE is a French multinational corporation that specialises in electricity distribution, automation management and produces installation components for energy management. The company describes itself as the global specialist in energy management and automation, claiming revenues of €27 billion in its 2015 financial year, it has more than 160,000 employees at work serving customers in more than 100 countries, helping them to manage their energy and process in ways that are safe, reliable, efficient and sustainable. “From the simplest of switches to complex operational systems, our technology, software and services improve the way our customers manage and automate their operations,” the company said in a statement.

Rodrigues said that Schneider Electric was making significant investments in the region and while he declined to release specific figures, he said the company will continue to do so. He said the company is continuing to improve its service infrastructure capabilities as well as Schneider Electric resources in Trinidad and Tobago and is showing its commitment to this country and the region by recently appointing Sharlene Mangalie as its new Enterprise Territory Manager for Trinidad and Tobago and the English-speaking Caribbean. He said Mangalie would be based in Trinidad and her appointment would allow the company to provide an additional level of support. He said the company had also invested in a Rapid Deployment Centre, which is wholly owned and controlled by Schneider Electric, where it will store critical spare parts that will allow the company to respond more quickly to repair breakdowns on contracted units in the region.

Schneider Electric is a manufacturer of products focused on energy management. “So our solutions focus on the management of energy all the way from the generation point to the end point and everything in between. So we don’t produce energy but we do manage that energy in the most efficient way and really as consultants in this energy management space is looking at the life cycle of energy management for corporations and businesses alike and showing them that we can provide the best case scenario on how to improve their energy efficiency while maintaining the integrity of their infrastructure and installations as well. He said the company already has many clients in this country to whom it provides its services through its partner networks already in place in the region, and hiring Mangalie will assist in supporting its partners from a consultative standpoint. “We really like to take a look from ground zero – ground zero as far as what a company’s infrastructure looks like today, assess that infrastructure and then start working together with them on any improvements.” He said the company also seeks “greenfield opportunities,” in which it consults with a client seeking to design and install a new infrastructure or installation from scratch and work out with them what would be the best approach to do it. He said that in these cases the company approaches such a conversation from a “modular perspective” which is not only the modularity of what Schneider Electric’s technology and solutions could provide, but also modularity from a budgetary standpoint “taking a look at how we can grow together, where you do not need to spend up front all that money to install all that infrastructure supporting your thinking. We may be able to approach it from a global view to divide it over the course of a three year plan as far as growing together, saving you on the capital expenditure spend on year one and also on the operational expenditure year over year and so on.”

He said when the company talks about energy efficiency a lot of times people look at what their power consumption might be from a power perspective but Schneider Electric takes a look at the entire picture, both from a power and a cooling infrastructure perspective, looking at the electrical and the mechanical infrastructure, understanding the inner workings of it and improving the efficiency on

both. “A lot of times people seem to leave cooling out of the equation when in reality cooling solutions can represent upwards of sixty percent of the total power consumption happening within their infrastructure.” He said that in addition, part of the company’s assessment in looking at the environment is to understand what the client’s load is as far as energy consumption and then making sure that the client is designing specifically for that load and preparing for what the future load may hold. “What we find in various environments across the Caribbean and in other parts of the world is that a lot of times people oversize their solutions based on what they expect to need versus what they need. And that oversizing of the solution is also inefficient and not only from a budgetary standpoint but also, more importantly, from an energy consumption standpoint you are probably consuming more than what you should and that’s really where we come in to make sure we take a look at all of that and improve that efficiency as much as possible.”

Early last year, Schneider Electric hosted a Data Centre Initiative Experience Efficiency Event in Trinidad for the first time. The event focused on data centres and created a dialogue about energy consumption, management and efficiency. It dealt with the demand drivers that are forcing change: economic and government rebalancing, urbanisation, digitisation and sustainable resources. “By looking at the latest integrated energy trends and sustainability solutions that will transform how we work, learn and play, Schneider Electric’s event created the ideal platform to discuss and demonstrate efficient energy opportunities. The company said, the world today is data driven; one in which three billion Facebook videos are viewed daily and 300 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every hour. Behind all of this data are Colocation Data Centres: vast banks of servers that process everything from online videos to financial assets and it takes a lot of energy to process that amount of information. In fact, data centres contribute to two percent of global CO2 emissions. “Our objective was to share information on trends, tools, services and solutions available to customers, that make it easier for them to operate in today’s environment.”

Rodrigues said the experience efficiency event was an opportunity for the company to meet with the top decision makers across the island and this part of the Caribbean and provide them with an inside look at what the company does on a day-to-day consultative standpoint and what it can do to provide its solutions to each of their businesses to really improve that efficiency long term and to reinforce the infrastructure they need to support their business. He said the event focused more on case studies rather than talking about the company’s products themselves so it looked at real life scenarios throughout the Caribbean region that the company had been working on and showing the top decision makers at the conference exactly how Schneider Electric could support them under similar circumstances, taking a look from the assessment standpoint understanding what their current infrastructure looks like, how the company supported the client with multiple options and suggestions in modularity from a budget standpoint as well as design and how it was able to support them from an executive standpoint as well.

Regarding the difficult economic times facing Trinidad and Tobago and the region, Rodrigues said that a company can never walk into a situation only in the good times and expect to truly understand what it was working with and how to improve on it. He said it was important for the company to maintain its presence and show all of the islands throughout the Caribbean zone that it was here to stay through the good times and the bad times and “we will support you exactly the same way no matter what the current economic winds are turning.” He said the company has made the decision to continue in the region and has hired local resources and is putting in additional infrastructure so that it’s customers will see that wholesale support has been preserved and the same goes for the company’s consultative services, adding that by continuing this conversation Schneider Electric believes that it will maintain the confidence of its customers during the downturn and during the upturn as well.

The Schneider Electric team: From left, Manuel Gonzalez, Sharlene Mangalie, Manuel Rodrigues, Hector Martinez.

Last year was undoubtedly a challenging year. Our cautious hope for some level of economic growth did not materialise and it became all too obvious that our country was indeed experiencing a recession. This trend is expected to continue, with only sluggish growth forecast for 2017, and so the challenge continues for business, government, labour and indeed, the average person who lives and works in Trinidad and Tobago.

We believe, however, that the situation is not entirely bleak. While Trinidad and Tobago will remain dependent on gas and oil for some time to come – despite their declining revenues – opportunities to help transform our country still exist.

Developments on the international front could have a positive spin-off impact for our country. OPEC producers have agreed to production cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day which, if adhered to, would help crude oil prices to stabilise at a more positive rate. On the gas front, bpTT’s much anticipated Juniper field is expected to bring some relief by mid-2017, producing some 590 million standard cubic feet of gas. Additionally, contracts signed within the last few years will give life to exploration efforts as we seek to effectively monetise these natural resources over the next decade.

In the meantime, the adjustment period, and how our limited income is managed will become critical to our country’s sustainability efforts. It is very unlikely that Trinidad and Tobago will ever return to the heyday of oil and gas that allowed for government expenditure (according to the last mid-term review) of some $31 billion over the a decade on the fuel subsidy, apart from the numerous other transfers and subsidies committed to annually.

Government and State agencies will be expected to exhibit a much higher level of collaboration and facilitation, along with greater transparency and accountability.

The T&T Chamber has long advocated for government to divest itself of enterprises which compete with the private sector and instead opt for a facilitating role in business development. Now is the right time to make such changes and we encourage an accelerated programme for State sector transformation.

We cannot overstate the value of satisfying requirements that will assist businesses to seek out new markets and compete internationally, and we make reference to, inter alia, FATCA-compliance and the Procurement Act as requiring action.

Ordinary citizens are very much a part of the equation and their role is not underestimated. They will continue to play a significant role in effecting much needed change. Increased productivity, re-tooling and less reliance on the State would see us returning to a more purposeful way of life – one that was once the norm rather than the exception.

All of the above could unfortunately hinge on how we as a country treat with crime, which remains our single biggest threat – along with the creeping sense of hopelessness it tends to engender. We simply must find a way to bring crime within manageable levels so that each of us can once more experience a sense of safety, security and peace of mind. That in itself, will be a significant gain.

I’m sure you’re all familiar with the name tests on Facebook that tell us a host of things from who are our best friends, who is our soulmate, what is the colour of our soul, when are we going to die and what quote best encapsulates our philosophy. Some take it to heart; others have a good laugh like I did when one of these tests revealed that my real profession was that of a ballet dancer!

Today, however, I came across one that showed me my word for 2017. I saw that another friend’s word was health and of course became curious. My word for 2k17 is LOVE.

This brought forward two thoughts:

One was first Corinthians 13 and the other was a story that I have often referenced in my lifetime by Stephen R. Covey found in the beloved The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. Here’s the excerpt:

“My wife and I just don’t have the same feelings for each other we used to have. I guess I just don’t love her anymore and she doesn’t love me. What can I do?”

“The feeling isn’t there anymore?” I asked.

“That’s right,” he reaffirmed. “And we have three children we’re really concerned about. What do you suggest?”

“Love her,” I replied.

“I told you, the feeling just isn’t there anymore.”

“Love her.”

“You don’t understand. the feeling of love just isn’t there.”

“Then love her. If the feeling isn’t there, that’s a good reason to love her.”

“But how do you love when you don’t love?”

“My friend, love is a verb. Love – the feeling – is a fruit of love, the verb. So love her. Serve her. Sacrifice. Listen to her. Empathise. Appreciate. Affirm her. Are you willing to do that?”

Love is a verb.

First Corinthians 13 tells us that love is patient and kind. Love is never jealous or boastful, rude or selfish. Love doesn’t take offense, never is resentful and love always tells the truth.

So I decided to really embrace LOVE as my word for 2017 and to throw out the challenge to those of you reading my column:

What if we did everything with love? How would our lives and businesses look? How would we feel as we went to work daily with the intention of bringing love to our work?

Can we be more patient with that co-worker who perhaps is not as quick in mastering the process? Or the customer who is long-winded and wastes our time with information we really don’t need? Can we exercise patience in our own progress? Not getting “there” fast enough. Can we be more compassionate, knowing that once we reset our intention that we will reap the benefits of our efforts eventually?

What if we approached what we did without the shallow aim of trying to look good or score brownie points? What if we just did our best because doing our best made US feel good?

What if we listened to the feedback instead of rushing to get offended and defend? What if we searched for kernels of truth? Owned the parts we need to take responsibility for and make the necessary changes we need to make?

What if “payback” wasn’t at the top of our agenda? What if we were less resentful and more grateful?

Love is possibility. It is always hopeful and most of all….perseveres. What if you never gave up on you? Began each new day with hope and faith in yourself, and your ideas?

Alain de Botton, modern philosopher and founder of the School of Life shares: “One of the interesting things about success is that we think we know what it means. A lot of the time our ideas about what it would mean to live successfully are not our own. They’re sucked in from other people. And we also suck in messages from everything from the television to advertising to marketing, etcetera. These are hugely powerful forces that define what we want and how we view ourselves. What I want to argue for is not that we should give up on our ideas of success, but that we should make sure that they are our own. We should focus in on our ideas and make sure that we own them, that we’re truly the authors of our own ambitions. Because it’s bad enough not getting what you want, but it’s even worse to have an idea of what it is you want and find out at the end of the journey that it isn’t, in fact, what you wanted all along.”

Let me propose that if you act with love in every area of your life, that you will find the answers you seek and that you will, perhaps for the first time, truly find what you’ve wanted all along!

Giselle Hudson is a Results Coach and Workshop facilitator who teaches people how they can get results in their businesses and lives. If you’re not getting the results you want in your life then it’s time for an audit. For your free report “How to Get Consistent Results in Your Business and Life” (includes a self-audit) send an email to posssibility2profit@gmail.com

Because of the commonplace nature of air travel, the etiquette expected for such travel is often taken for granted, causing undue discomfort for other passengers in each travel class. One of the simple rules of travel, in similar vein to the rule of life, is to treat others with respect, and do onto others as you would have them do onto you. With these guides in mind, here are a few tips I have pulled together to support your air travel etiquette;

• Be mindful of the space allocation. We have all experienced the over stuffing of the suitcase, with that passenger who comes aboard with the carry-on, and a number of other overstuffed bags and packages, taking up much more space than that assigned. While it is appreciated that shopping is a very important part of the travel experience, remember space is assigned to each passenger, and it would help to be mindful of others. You are afforded space in the overhead locker as well as at your feet. Be thoughtful when packing your bags with this allocation in mind.

• Comfort should be coupled with Care. Recently, one airline introduced a dress code for their business and first class customers, particularly for the airport lounge. Though this introduction was met with resistance, the airline remained steadfast in ensuring the standards they required for the dress codes. It is understandable that travel for leisure means exactly that, and for many, donning very casual and comfortable attire is perfectly acceptable – however, there are those who do push the boundaries of acceptable. Even though many airlines do not have stated policies on passenger dress codes, some do act based on if they believe the passenger’s dress may be offensive to the other guests. Simply put, be mindful of your choices. This includes the exhibiting of your undressed feet. Removing your shoes for a long flight is understandable. However, be mindful that other passengers may not be interested in viewing your undressed toes, and perhaps using a travel sock is an option

• Monitor your volumes, and alcohol intake. I recall on a late flight to New York some time ago, after the meal service, the lights were dimmed as is customary to allow passengers the opportunity to nap. Two passengers took that opportunity to engage in loud discussion, laughter, and the more alcohol they requested and consumed, the louder they became, causing all the other passengers in the cabin to protest. While it is your right to enjoy your flight as best as you could, it is respectful to recognise certain basic principles of decency and respect for and of others as well. Do not over do.

• Respect your flight staff. The flight staff is there to ensure both your comfort and safety while on board. They are not there to be used as your personal wait staff. I have seen some passengers verbally abuse flight staff which is completely unacceptable. Remember respect is earned, not worn.

• Deplaning, it is not a race. How many times have you arrived at the runway awaiting to deplane, and everyone in front of you and behind you are all standing, grabbing their luggage from the overhead lockers, and almost tripping over you to get out? I have never quite understood the logic of attempting to trip over each other to deplane. There are rows, and if we allow each row to deplane I am certain we would all exit in quick order. Enjoy your flight

Perhaps the first may be considered more of a medium-term project. Certainly, the key principles must include diversification of the economy henceforth removing dependence on oil and gas. However, emphasis has to be placed on getting both the manufacturing and services sectors engaged. In this regard, consideration has to be given to providing incentives to the non-energy sector that allow them to target the local market, reduce the carbon foot print in production and introduce new technologies and processes to attract customers. Indeed, the involvement of the tertiary level institutions to adapt technologies both to local needs and the environment, is essential.

It would also be useful to provide incentives to businesses to be part of the green imitative from every sector allowing tax free exemption of capital equipment as well as imports of raw materials for the first year. Consideration can be given to provide incentives to substitute intermediate products with locally produced ones. Such backward linkages have to be exploited. This means establishment of enterprises which do the detailed research and provide advice on sourcing materials as well as information about goods and services that are in demand. Understanding linkages requires government support as markets are not efficient at making information available in a timely manner. This is just one example but the idea can be extrapolated across the non-energy sector. The potential, with consultation, is staggering.

The other area that needs our attention is the Petrotrin strike which should raise serious concern for us all. This is by no means an attempt to make comments of negotiating strategy or posturing. The Union, Petrotrin’s Board and the Government are charged with various responsibilities. It is here that questions arise. What is the debt profile of Petrotrin? Is the company solvent? What is the state of finances of this company? What are the salaries in this company compared with similar skills operating in other sectors? Is Petrotrin overstaffed for a company of its size? Is employment creation using state entities a requirement in 2016? Has there been a paradigm shift? Of course, for the government, what is the national plan and how does Petrotrin fit into this plan? The answers to these questions are important. This must not be a case of the cement company all over again. A company burdened by debt, whose finances are bad, must attempt to address wages in the context of their ability to pay. One expects reason and good sense to prevail and not, as is the developing point of view, holding the country to ransom. That is not to say that the workers as citizens must not ask what is in their best interest. We need to answer the question as to whether “incentives” to the energy sector, which already experiences higher than average wages, fit in to the drive to diversify away from oil and gas? At a time of low energy prices and a debt-ridden company – is this the time for this approach. Are increased wages the only focal point of a union? The government also has to respond with an appropriate wages policy. Is there a standard wage increase policy? Indeed a sober start to the year.

It powers our homes, offices, cell phones, tablets and TVs to name a few.

Currently, fossils fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) account for roughly 67 percent of electricity generation worldwide.

According to the International Energy Outlook 2016 report, by 2040 it is expected that renewable energy will account for an equal share (28 percent-29 percent) of electricity generation to that of coal and natural gas globally.

So why the big deal about renewable energy when Trinidad and Tobago has oil and natural gas?

The concern is that fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas are a finite resource which will eventually be depleted, as the rate at which these resources are being consumed, far exceeds the rate at which fossil fuels are being produced, which as we all know, takes thousands of years.

In addition, the extraction of oil and natural gas are both costly and dangerous which will become increasingly so as oil operators search for new oil and gas fields in more remote areas around the globe.

Renewable Energy on the other hand, is generated from natural resources such as the sun (solar) and wind which occur naturally and are therefore easy to find, constantly replenished and more importantly will never run out.

Equally important is the fact that wind and solar energy are essentially a clean type of energy especially compared to fossil fuels which negatively impact on our health and the environment, as recently seen in the Gulf of Paria and are a major contributor towards climate change.

Looking towards the future, profits cannot be our only goal and should not be achieved at the expense of the environment and our health.

As a nation, we need to be cognisant of the fact that oil and gas are limited resources which will eventually run out. Then what?

Whether it be this generation or the next, why wait when we can change our path now, knowing what lies ahead.

Would it not be prudent to remove our dependency on fossil fuels as a finite source of electricity (and revenue for that matter) and over time, transition towards solar and wind energy?

Trinidad and Tobago is blessed with sunny skies and strong winds, which can provide a constantly replenished energy resource supply which has the potential to provide all the country’s electricity needs.

No one is disputing that there won’t be challenges in setting up renewable energy sources, such as sizeable start-up costs combined with limited land space for example.

But with the advancement in technology, start-up costs in solar and wind power continue to steadily decline and are projected to drop even further with these type of energy resources becoming more efficient by the day.

For example, the average price of a solar panel has dropped almost 60% since 2011 while the cost of generating electricity from wind has dropped more than 20% between 2010 and 2012 and more than 80 percent since 1980.

From an economic point of view, solar power plants and wind farm ventures represent a great opportunity for investors, more so when supported by Government and tax incentives, and would lead to job creation in the manufacturing, construction, and service and development sectors thereby stimulating the economy.

A good example of this is in United States where in 2011, the wind energy industry directly provided 75,000 jobs in a variety of capacities including manufacturing, project development, construction, operations and maintenance, transportation, financial and legal services.

Another advantage of developing renewable energy resources, is that it would guarantee energy price stability and security as compared to fossil fuel prices which are prone to substantial price swings on the global commodities market as currently being experienced.

Denmark was at one time heavily dependent on imported energy, primarily oil from the Middle East. Since the oil crisis in the early 1970s, Denmark set up a national energy system which has become more reliant on renewable energy resources such as wind, which now accounts for 40 percent of Denmark’s energy supply. This has resulted in other countries looking to Denmark for inspiration and cooperation as they too move towards renewable energy, with Denmark establishing itself as a world leader in wind energy.

It is also worth noting that Denmark expects to become completely independent of fossil fuels by 2050, and while moving towards this target, is also able to generate revenue from selling excess electricity it has produced to neighbouring countries from the wind industry which accounted for 5.2 percent of total Danish export in 2014.

It is heartening to know that the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago is currently exploring the use of renewable energy, and the Royal Danish Consulate in Trinidad and Tobago stands willing and able to assist in any capacity, to guarantee the future for generations to come.

Perhaps we can start with the world economy which – based on projections by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)) – is expected to grow at around 2.7 percent, an improvement over the 2.2 percent recorded for 2016. In large measure this performance will be based on an upturn in both emerging and developed economies. India is projected to have a growth rate of 7.7 percent for 2017. China’s growth will slow to around 6.5 percent. In the Caribbean average growth is projected to be around 2.4 percent , up from the low of 0.3 percent estimated by ECLAC for 2016. This improvement will come from a moderate uptick in commodity prices, the OPEC deal, new gas fields coming into production in Trinidad and Tobago, the gold mine in Suriname, oil royalties and gold production in Guyana, rebound in agriculture and increase in tourism.

Business Monitor International, a Fitch Group Company, has estimated that economic growth in Trinidad & Tobago (TT) will rebound in 2017, based on higher energy prices and new natural gas production capacity coming online, to grow 2.0 percent in 2017, from what some estimates place between 2.3 percent and 4.4 percent negative growth in 2016. It is anticipated that several new offshore projects, including the large Juniper project, will come online, offering the strongest gain in production in a decade. It is forecast that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will rise from an average of approximately USD44.0/ bbl in 2016 to USD53.5/ bbl in 2017. There is a view that economic growth will be accounted for in large measure by exports, since it is expected that the government’s fiscal consolidation will weaken private and public consumption, while a low business sentiment will constrain private sector investment.

A rather crude description of the way the economy functions is as follows: the government channels revenues from oil sales into the rest of the economy through transfers, public consumption, and employment. With the hydrocarbon sector experiencing a combination of weak production outlook and structurally lower oil prices, the economy will, increasingly, come to depend on private consumption to drive growth. It is expected that private consumption will rise from TT$112.7 billion in 2016 to TT$118.2 billion. This increase may not be sufficient to replace the significant fall-off in investment in the energy sector.

Government consumption will rise marginally, constrained in large measure by fiscal consolidation underway and low revenues from the energy sector. The use of debt issuances and assets held in its sovereign wealth fund to maintain expenditures may prevent any deterioration in Government consumption.

Fixed investment is forecasted to see fixed capital formation increase from TT$25.5 billion in 2016 to TT$26.8 billion in 2017. While this is a nominal increase, care must be taken in interpreting this data since as a percentage of GDP, fixed investment reached 28.9 percent of GDP in 2005, but began declining as the bulk of TT’s most accessible oil reserves were developed.

In 2016 it was projected to be 17.9 percent. Increasing the investment flows to the non-energy sector is the key going forward.

The OPEC oil deal and the apparent agreement by non-OPEC members to reduce output will depend on all parties being honest brokers. The moment any country decides to break the agreement for any reason, or shale producers, who exited the market, decide to re-enter because the price is now right could result in prices ceasing to rise or, worse, falling. If either were to occur, the resulting lower oil prices will place depreciatory pressure on the Trinidadian dollar (TTD) over 2017, resulting in a deterioration of the country’s terms of trade and weaker investment inflows. Since we have a managed float it can be expected that there will be continued tight control over foreign exchange sales by the Central Bank. Such a course of action may mitigate any significant depreciation of the currency.

However, reflecting a significant fall-off in market supply of foreign currency, it is felt that the bank may permit the TT dollar to gradually depreciate over 2017. Running models to ascertain the possible rate through which the currency may be allowed to depreciate suggests a range between TTD6.80/USD to TTD7.25/USD in 2017. The higher range could be far worse if oil and/or gas price were to fall precipitously or average much lower than the budgeted figure for 2017.

Any weakening of the TT dollar can see in response, an increase in the price of imported items. This can lead to a possible acceleration of inflation, cutting into household purchasing power. As 2017 is on us, there are forces over which we have no control that will influence our macro-economic aggregates. However, in our hands rests the requirement for efficiency, productivity, and innovation, all very essential to getting our economy on a sustainable growth path.