Yetming to lose seat

In moving from 36 constituencies to 41 in Trinidad and Tobago, a recent Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) Report wants to create some new constituencies and eliminate others, but in the main just slightly shift most existing boundaries. The changes will variously benefit the ruling PNM and opposition UNC. Parliament would likely move from 20 PNM to 16 UNC seats to 22 to 19. Of the five new constituencies created, three would be expected to go to the UNC and two to the PNM. The UNC could expect to win a new seat when Oropouche MP Roodal Moonilal’s seat is split into East and West constituencies. The UNC would also likely win two new seats when a slice of Chaguanas is shaved off to create Chaguanas East (with Chaguanas renamed Chaguanas West) and a chunk of about two-thirds of Ortoire/Mayaro running along the South coast is renamed “Princes Town South/Tableland”.

The PNM would likely win a new seat when its two existing seats of Arouca North and Arouca South are carved up into three constituencies — Lopinot/Bon Aire West, Arouca/Maloney, and D’Abadie/O’Meara. The PNM would also likely win a seat when the western half of Caroni East is cut off to make a new constituency of La Horquetta/Talparo. The PNM would greatly benefit from the boundary changes in the current five marginal constituencies. The PNM would take St Joseph from UNC MP Gerard Yetming, while strengthening its hold on its two marginals of Tunapuna and San Fernando West. The Report proposes that Tunapuna gain a polling division from St Ann’s East and lose four divisions to the new Lopinot/Bon Aire West.

Based on votes cast for each party in 2002, these changes would subtract 1,003 votes from the PNM and a similar 1,091 votes from the UNC. But more significantly it would bring in some 523 new votes from St Anns East for the PNM, compared to just 243 new votes for the UNC. Overall the boundary changes would increase Eddie Hart’s majority over his UNC rival from just 624 in 2002, up to 992 votes. The UNC holds two marginals. The boundaries of Barataria/San Juan held by Dr Fuad Khan will be totally unchanged, said the Report. But Gerald Yetming would lose St Joseph, in a re-run of the 2002 election using these boundary changes. The changes would give St Joseph two new polling divisions from St Ann’s East, while losing two divisions to St Augustine. The St Ann’s East divisions would add 126 votes to the UNC but a whopping 990 votes to the PNM. Further, the changes would remove just 370 votes from the PNM, but a massive 1,202 votes from the UNC.

Overall the 2002 election result would be reversed from the UNC getting 9,352 votes and the PNM getting 8,124 votes, to the PNM winning with 8,744 votes to the UNC’s 8,276. If the 2002 elections were re-run with the boundary changes in San Fernando West, the PNM would increase its lead over the UNC. Adding two divisions from San Fernando East would add 238 votes to the PNM and 85 to the UNC. But moreso San Fernando West would lose some 725 PNM voters to Oropouche East and 378 to Oropouche West, and lose some 1,119 UNC voters to Oropouche East and 897 to Oropouche West. So overall the PNM would firm up its hold on San Fernando West.